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Dollar

• The dollar gains some ground today, despite the fact that risk sentiment remains subdued.
• Russia’s siege of Kyiv continues to this day.
• The dollar is trading higher against the euro and has recovered some of its losses against the pound and commodity currencies so far today.
• The EUR/USD was trading around 1.1220 earlier in the day, but has now dropped to 1.1180 as equities begin to show signs of nervousness again.
• GBP/USD is currently down from 1.3430 to 1.3385, while AUD/USD is down from 0.7210 to 0.7190 and NZD/USD is down from 0.6720 to 0.6700.
• There is still apprehension in the air, and despite yesterday’s miraculous risk comeback in US trading, there isn’t much appetite in Europe to continue.

Russia

Russia is said to be preparing a package of retaliatory sanctions.

This is where things begin to get interesting, and if Russia begins to cut off supplies, it will cause quite a headache for Europe. Both TASS and Interfax are reporting on the matter, claiming that Russia will target the West’s “weak spots.”

At this point, with the EU relatively fearful,  Russia will spare their blushes and refrain from imposing harsh sanctions. But we’ll have to see. If anything, the United States will be targeted more aggressively while also suffering less damage.

If no action is taken by SWIFT against Russia, there will be no Russian retaliation against EU energy supplies.

Russia prohibits UK planes from landing or flying through its airspace. All aircraft registered in the United Kingdom are no longer permitted to fly through Russian airspace. This is in response to UK sanctions imposed on Aeroflot.

According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks, Russia does not see the current Ukrainian government as democratic.

He has stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky is lying when he says he is willing to discuss Ukraine’s neutral status.

That clearly marks the end of the negotiations. Lavrov goes on to say that Russia wants Ukrainians to be self-sufficient and that no one intends to occupy Ukraine. There’s a lot of propaganda in those words, but it’s all part of the game.

Equities

US futures fall to begin the session, S&P 500 futures -1.2 percent, Nasdaq futures -1.4 percent & Dow futures -1.1 percent

Wall Street staged a miraculous comeback yesterday, but it appears that dip buyers will need a second act to be convinced of a genuine turnaround in sentiment before the weekend. Just keep in mind that month-end flows may also be a factor; all to add to the chaos of a volatile trading period.