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US

The US economic calendar for the coming week includes quarter-end and non-farm payrolls.

Next week’s US economic calendar begins quietly but ends with a bang. The most important thing to remember is that the month and quarter are coming to an end. We’ve seen some massive moves in bonds, which will result in some associated flows. It’s also the end of the fiscal year in Japan. Here’s what to expect from US economic data in the coming months.

• Monday’s events include an advance goods trade balance, a 2-year auction, and a 5-year auction.
• Tuesday’s events include JOLTS, Consumer Confidence, the House Price Index, and a 7-year auction.
• Wednesday: ADP employment, Q4 GDP final.
• Thursday: PCE and initial jobless claims.
• Friday’s economic data includes nonfarm payrolls, the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending.

There will also be a lot of Fedspeak. Williams today emphasised the importance of data, and the market is currently pricing in a 79 percent chance of 50 basis points on May 4.

Germany

Scholz of Germany said : “We will be independent of Russian gas sooner than many people believe”

Scholz’s comments: Germany is less reliant on Russian gas than others, with some relying entirely on it. The process of becoming self-sufficient in Russian gas is irreversible.

It would be something if Russia turned off the taps; it would undoubtedly be a quick transition. 

Russia

• The Russian demand to be paid in roubles will be a major topic next week.

• This week, Putin put a damper on rouble shorts by demanding that payments for Russian oil and gas from ‘unfriendly countries’ be made in rubles.

• This resulted in a 10% rally in the rouble on Wednesday, with the currency retaining two-thirds of its gains.
• The question now is whether it occurs (unlikely) and what Russia will do in response (much tougher to guess).
• Europeans have made it clear that they will not pay in roubles.
• They argue that the contracts require payment in dollars or euros and that they are under no obligation to change course. Even if they wanted to pay in roubles, they would have a difficult time obtaining them. As a result, Putin’s threat may be hollow.
• This week we’ll find out. Russia has hinted that if Europe refuses to pay in roubles, it may hold them in arrears. That’s a stretch, but we’re not exactly adhering to global standards.
• On a domestic level, this would be extremely damaging to Russia, but it would also have a significant impact on European industry and energy consumers.
• It would be a significant escalation in the economic war. What makes me think it’s more likely than most people believe is that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated today that the West has declared total war on Russia as a result of sanctions.
• This could be their way of repaying the favour. The US is talking about increasing LNG supplies, but there won’t be any for years. Anything delivered to Europe will have to be rerouted from somewhere else, most likely Asia.

China

• Be on the lookout for data from China this weekend – February Industrial Profit.
• Due at 0130 GMT on March 27, 2022
• This expected data release is not listed on all calendars.
• Due at 0130 GMT on March 27, 2022
• Saturday, March 26, 2022, at 21.30 US ET (9.30pm).
• Industrial Profits in China in February 2022
• prior +4.20 percent year on year • prior +34.3 percent year to date
• The Chinese PMIs for March will be of greater interest next week. These will begin on Thursday, March 31st, with the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which are due at 0100 GMT on March 31st:
• The times listed in the left-hand column are in GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month) results, and the number in the column next to that is the expected consensus median.