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Dollar

• EUR/USD down 0.3 percent to 1.1123 on the day
• The push and pull for the dollar continues this week, with USD/JPY now inching back up to near 122.00 after touching a low of 121.35 earlier in the session. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD is marked lower to 1.1123, with the greenback advancing slightly across the board.
• A return to the mid-March highs around 1.1121-37 would be a blow to buyers’ momentum in EUR/USD, though the key hourly moving averages are still seen far away @ 1.1033-53 for the time being.
• There isn’t much in the way of headlines to work with this week as flows continue to play out.
• The GBP/USD is down slightly to 1.3110 from around 1.3148 earlier today, while the AUD/USD is down 0.5 percent to 0.7472 as buyers struggle to keep above 0.7500.
• Just keep in mind that today is also month-end and quarter-end trading, so things may be a little choppy.
• USD/JPY falls 0.3 percent to 121.45 on the day The pair is down to fresh lows on the day as the push and pull now favours sellers a little more.
• Of note, we are seeing a drop back below the 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ 121.68, indicating that sellers have reclaimed near-term control following a brief battle since trading yesterday.
• The pair has dropped to new lows for the day as the push and pull begins to favour sellers a little more.
• Of note, we are seeing a drop back below the 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ 121.68, indicating that sellers have reclaimed near-term control following a brief battle since trading yesterday.
• Minor support is seen next around 121.18-31, but key support is seen closer to 120.00, with many eyes also looking for support in that region towards 119.50.
• The latest shave comes after price hit the pivotal 125.00 target earlier in the week, with some technical exhaustion now taking place amid talk of Japan fiscal year-end repatriation flows as well.

Russia

• Moscow says it will not refuse talks between Russia and Ukraine’s foreign ministers.
• However, talks must be substantive, according to the Russian foreign ministry.
• While the meeting between Lavrov and Kuleba on March 10 failed to produce anything significant, there has been some progress from talks in Istanbul this week.
• It  will be enough to change the tone or approach of higher-level talks, and Russia has made that clear as well.

OPEC+

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) will make OPEC+ oil output estimates publicly available to support transparency.
• The IEA says its data and analysis are available to anyone seeking objective market information.
• This comes after OPEC+ removed IEA estimates as a secondary source earlier today.
• The irony of OPEC+’s dissatisfaction with the IEA’s alleged “bias” here is that even within the bloc, they can’t trust the quality of data produced by its own members, which is why they rely on secondary sources.