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Eurozone

Eurozone February trade balance -€7.6 billion vs -€27.2 billion previously, Latest Eurostat data – 20 April 2022  ,Prior -€27.2 billion.

The eurozone trade deficit has carried over to February, as the rise in energy prices has resulted in a significant increase in the value of energy imports. To put this in context, payment for imports increased by 38.8 percent year on year, while revenue from exports increased by only 17.0 percent year on year.

Looking back, the eurozone trade balance is rarely in deficit territory, but this was the fourth consecutive month, albeit less than the record €27.2 billion deficit in January

Dollar

• The greenback is lower across the board in European morning trade.
• The drop occurred earlier in Asia Pacific trading, when USD/JPY hit a bit of an air pocket. Since then, the dollar has remained weak, with the EUR/USD now up 0.4 percent to 1.0830.
• The weekly chart shows support at 1.0800, but recent lows indicate that buyers are holding on around 1.0760. Price has moved back above the 100-hour moving average today, indicating that the near-term bias has shifted to neutral.
• The 200-hour moving average is now providing resistance at 1.0838. In other news, the USD/JPY has remained pinned down around 128.40-50 levels after falling from 129.40 earlier in the day.
• The AUD/USD is up 0.8 percent to 0.7430 as buyers reclaim near-term control on a push above its own key hourly moving averages @ 0.7391-18. The rebound is also accompanied by a move away from its 100-week moving average of 0.7363.
• Changes in bias in the near-term charts are cause for concern because they could indicate a slight pause in the dollar’s recent momentum.

Yuan

• The Chinese yuan has dropped to its lowest level in six months against the US dollar.
• Although the PBOC did deliver on an RRR cut, it disappointed market expectations for something more, as the central bank did not add to stimulus measures earlier today here.
• Certain segments of the market are expecting the PBOC to provide additional stimulus to the Chinese economy, but it appears that they are taking a different approach. They fixed the yuan weaker again today, and the offshore market appears to be pushing it above 6.40 against the dollar with little resistance.
• The latest push also breaks a key trendline resistance, which is worth noting even if technicals aren’t as important for the yuan. However, if China does allow its currency to weaken further, it sends a warning signal to emerging market and risk currencies. At the same time, it may act as another short-term tailwind for the dollar.