In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the USD/JPY, USD/MXN, EUR/USD and USD/CHF.
USD/JPY: Well-set for weekly loss at 131.50, Kuroda’s retirement speech, US NFP in focus
While momentum traders are challenged by Good Friday’s off in other countries, contradictory domestic variables, and a cautious mindset ahead of the crucial US data, USD/JPY needs help finding a clear direction. Nonetheless, the Yen pair oscillates between 131.60 and 70 while recording little losses as it attempts to undo the previous week’s gain, which was the first in five.
Real wages—the prices of household expenditure in Japan adjusted for inflation for February—improved earlier in the day from a one-year low. The Total Household Spending and Labor Cash Earnings statistics were similar since both drivers increased for the specified month. The actual numbers, however, point to a decline in expenditure, which prompts the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to drive markets higher.
The BoJ had to acquire additional bonds in addition to the lately stronger statistics because of expectations that the loose monetary policy would end. In March, the BoJ held a record amount of Japanese Government Bonds (BoJ).
It’s important to note that the early 2023 revision of the Yield Curve Control and the departure of the stern dove Haruhiko Kuroda as governor of the BoJ support the future hawkish action of the central bank and let the JPY stay stronger. Yet, earlier in Asia, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki indicated that the existing monetary policy would continue.
USD/MXN Price Analysis: Bears require approval from the 18.15 level of support.
With a lackluster start to the Good Friday holidays on major bourses, the USD/MXN pair hovers around 18.23. As a result, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair fails to sustain the downward breach of an upward-sloping trend line that has been extended since Tuesday.
Along with the USD/MXN pair’s opposition against furthering the trend line breach, the sellers are also up against an anticipated bull cross on the MACD indicator.
The 200-HMA and resistance line from mid-March, which was about 18.15 at the time of press, also presents a challenge for the USD/MXN bears.
If the pair’s price falls below 18.15, the Year-To-Date (YTD) low, now at 17.96, will be broken.
To regain intraday buyers’ trust, the USD/MXN rebound should surpass the three-day-old last support line, at least around 18.35.
Even before handing power to the bulls, the weekly peak at 18.40 may serve as an additional filter towards the north.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Advocates for additional upside ahead of US NFP, 1.0930 is the key level
During the early hours of Good Friday in Europe, the EUR/USD oscillates around a crucial upward barrier of 1.0930. By doing so, the Euro pair continues to trade effectively above the 100-SMA and the important support lines since March, keeping it on track to record a three-week winning streak. However, the market’s cautious attitude in the lead-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) continues to provide a problem for pair traders.
In addition to the continuous trading above the 100-SMA and the stretching of two support lines from the previous month, the RSI (14)’s generally stable state indicates the continuance of the EUR/USD pair’s gains.
Yet, for the EUR/USD bulls to challenge the most recent top of 1.0973, a clear breach of the two-week-old horizontal obstacle around 1.0930 is required.
After that, it’s possible for a run-up to the monthly high of around 1.1035 and then to the March 2022 high of roughly 1.1185.
In contrast, downward movements may target a three-week support line at 1.0870 when the MACD displays bearish signs.
USD/CHF remains under pressure near 0.9000 as markets await Good Friday’s NFP report.
As the US Dollar prepares for the crucial US jobs report early Friday, USD/CHF remains weaker at 0.9040. While the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair’s ability to move immediately is constrained by the Good Friday holiday, unfavorable US data and economic concerns give pair sellers optimism.
Yet, a decrease in the country’s foreign currency reserves contrasts with Thursday’s unchanged Swiss Unemployment Rate for March, confusing USD/CHF speculators. Yet, negative US data fuels the slump and puts downward pressure on pricing.
Notwithstanding this, the US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 228K for the week ending March 31 compared to the predicted 200K and the previously upwardly revised 246 K. It’s important to note that the number of Challenger Job Cuts increased to 89.703K from 77.77K the month before. Before this, the US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and the 145K statistics from the ADP Employment Change for March also let markets down. Moreover, the March US ISM Services PMI, which fell to 51.2 from 55.1 in February and 54.5 in anticipation, increased pessimism.
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