In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the Crypto Forecast, AUD/USD, S&P 500/ Nasdaq 100/ Dow Jones and XAU/ XAG.
Crypto Forecast: As the “Merge” date is made public, BTC and ETH lead the rally
While we are still one week away from the much anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting on July 27, this week has been whole with meaningful news stories that have caused volatility to rise. Over the last week, there has been significant momentum in the cryptocurrency market as a whole, and Bitcoin (BTC) has risen over the highs of its consolidation zone, which were $23,000, to reach a new high of $24,200.
Growing future premiums show that the market is feeling better. Offshore premiums align with early July levels but remain squeezed, indicating a cautious attitude. After a record-breaking 74-day stretch of high dread, the Fear and Greed index has moved out of that region, which might be another help to the struggling crypto market’s morale.
Ethereum (ETH), which is up more than 50% since last week, had significant weekly gains and reached a high of $1,646. The revelation that an event known as “The Merge” has a tentative launch date, the week of September 19, gave a lift to the second-most valuable cryptocurrency in the world. This will result in Ethereum switching from a proof-of-work system to a proof-of-stake one, using 99.95% less energy overall.
Weekly Forecast for AUD/USD: Commodities Strengthen the Resilient Aussie Fed in Focus Despite PMI Failure
Considering that both the manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia fell in July, the Australian dollar closed the week on a somewhat positive note. Although the two prints were still over the mid-50 level (expansionary territory), the decline emphasizes inflation and recession worries’ effect on Australian economic indicators. The U.S. PMI miss, which sent the composite and services readings into the contractionary range, drove the Australian dollar to monthly highs. Due to its role as a proxy for currency risk,The Australian dollar may decline over the following months if the pattern persists and the case for a recession intensifies according to the forecasts.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones
Stocks had a good week as the main indexes recovered from lows in June, just before the last FOMC rate decision. The day after the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the Nasdaq bottomed out, and the next day, the S&P 500 and Dow both reached a low. It’s noteworthy that rates peaked then, with the 10-year bond hitting 3.495 percent before turning. Since then, we’ve seen yields decline and stock prices rise, evoking previous bull markets fueled by easy-money policies from the Federal Reserve. Many are now calling for higher stock prices as the Fed deals with a slew of dismal economic data that may indicate pressures toward a recession.
The housing data released on Monday in the U.S. was incredibly disappointing and probably a reaction to higher interest rates; the jobless claims data on Thursday came in above expectations, highlighting a potential impact on the labor market; and the PMI release on Friday, which is regarded as a leading indicator, came in at 47.5. Printing below the 50 mark, which represents growth, shows contraction. The PMI is at its lowest point since the financial collapse, except for a short time in 2020.
Gold and Silver Technical Forecast: Charts Show More Losses for XAU and XAG
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR GOLD
Gold prices plummeted to a new 2022 low before finding support close to the 2021 swing low at approximately 1,680. This ended a five-week losing trend for the metal. Strength rapidly diminished after that. A recently broken support area at 1,720, dating back to April 2021, changed to resistance. Bullish energy was snuffed out as a result, and prices pared gains entering the weekend.
After a string of significant weekly losses, XAU’s performance on Friday was pretty lackluster. It was up just 0.4 percent for the week. The gains seem ready to be given up, and gold prices may return to their prior downward trend. If so, prices might fall below last week’s low, or 1,681, which often supported prices in 2021. Levels not traded since early 2020 would become accessible with a lower break.
According to the forecasts, Gold bulls may yet retake the area of support of around 1,720, but they may need to recover first. The 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level, which is tightly matched, provides a distinct target to reclaim. A possibly positive move will occur when the MACD line crosses over the oscillator’s signal line. Should prices succeed, the 38.2 percent Fib level and the declining 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) would likely serve as targets.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR SILVER
Silver prices narrowly ended a seven-week losing run, tracking just 0.25 percent higher through Friday. A region of prior opposition was given a bedrock of support for XAG dating back to October 2016. Nevertheless, a multi-month downturn is present, and the bias is still tilted downward. The cost of goods has decreased by more than 7% since July 1.
Even yet, silver may recover if prices stay around the low of 18.148 from last week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged out of its oversold region, signaling a positive crossing of the MACD. Like with gold, the declining 26-day EMA presents a challenge that, if overcome, might return prices to a firm footing. The 26-day EMA and 38.2 percent Fib retracement would then focus from that point on according to the forecasts.
Please click here for the News Updates from July 22, 2022.