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Oil

• Talk of reserve releases is insufficient to keep oil below $100.
• That’s one of the more common market adages, and it may well be applicable to what we’re seeing in oil prices right now.
• Oil is up 1.6 percent today, as the price remains above $100 for the time being.
• A record crude reserve release by Biden, as well as talk of more from the IEA, has weighed on sentiment, but in the big picture, we’re still stuck in the $95 to $125 range in oil. What’s more encouraging for bulls is that the price has managed to stay above $100.
• One argument is that, while these releases are significant, they are only a band-aid and not a long-term solution to the structural issues in the oil market.
• As much as oil may be “struggling” to reach the highs seen during the height of Russia-Ukraine conflict fears, the fact that it is staying up is, in my opinion, a strong indicator of where sentiment is leaning.
• The fundamentals appear to indicate that higher oil prices are here to stay, barring any major disruptions in global demand.

Russia

• When asked about peace talks, Russia says, ‘work is ongoing.’
• The process is not moving as quickly or as energetically as Moscow would like.
• That’s another day without making any significant progress. As previously stated, markets have become apathetic to headlines, and it would take a significant development to pique their interest. Otherwise, proceed as you please.

Dollar

• The yen continues to hold lower across the board. The dollar was firmer to begin European morning trade but has seen that advance peter out in the last hour or so.
• EUR/USD had fallen to 1.0875 but has since risen to 1.0917. The pair’s near-term bias continues to favour sellers, but trading sentiment appears to be mixed today. GBP/USD was also down to 1.3045 earlier today, but is now up 0.2 percent near 1.3100.
• It’s difficult to attribute anything to the moves we’re seeing because, in my opinion, they’re just some light pushing and pulling.
• The USD/JPY is remaining relatively stable, hovering around 123.70-90 as the bond selloff continues, despite Treasury yields falling from earlier in the day highs. Continue to keep an eye on the bond market, if nothing else. Given the levels we’re seeing in broader markets, that’s where the main focus is.

Stocks

• Stocks fall in European morning trade, It’s not been a good week for equities.
• European indices have fallen across the board, with the majority of them falling by nearly 1%.
• Eurostoxx 50 -0.9%, Germany’s DAX fell -1.1 percent; France’s CAC 40 fell -0.9 percent.
• FTSE 100 (UK) -0.4%, Spain’s IBEX fell -0.5 percent.
• Italy’s FTSE MIB fell by 1.0 percent.
• S&P 500 futures are down 0.4 percent, Nasdaq futures are down 0.6 percent, and Dow futures are down 0.3 percent in the United States.
• The more hawkish Fed talk yesterday spooked markets a little, but sentiment is also looking a little iffy for the most part, in my opinion. Concerns about inflation, China’s lockdown, and rising bond yields are all part of the picture right now.