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Forex News December 23, 2021

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Japan

Yen depreciation has a net beneficial impact on the Japanese economy 

Exports’ sensitivity to exchange rates has dropped dramatically since the GFC

•As a result, yen depreciation has lately been less likely to stimulate exports

•BOJ monetary policy does not directly target exchange rates To maintain the existing strong monetary easing through QQE with YCC. 

Kuroda’s performance was nothing out of the usual. The BOJ is still preaching to the choir in its attempt to persuade people that they can attain 2% inflation in some way. 

There are larger structural difficulties with Japan, such as demography, which cannot be changed quickly.

Germany 

Germany November import price index +3.0 percent vs. anticipated +1.0 percent m/m 

• Previously +3.8 percent 

• Import price index +24.7 percent vs. anticipated +22.3 percent y/y | Prior +21.7 percent 

Another month, another month of rising import prices. This is consistent with the region’s overall pattern of increased cost constraints as the year comes to a close.

Gold 

  • Gold is trading higher in December, but it doesn’t feel like it. 
  • Gold is presently trading back over $1,800, despite some weakness in the dollar over the last day. 
  • However, while the yellow metal has been trading higher so far this month, there appears to be something missing. 
  • Given that price activity hasn’t broken stride, it’s simple to see why. In the last two weeks, prices have generally been between $1,765 and $1,800.
  • However, following yesterday’s climb above $1,800. Historically, December and January have been great seasonal months for gold to shine. I said it a few times earlier in the month, most recently before the big central bank meetings last week.
  • While the dollar’s strength and the Fed’s hawkishness were factors weighing on gold, purchasers attempted to make a move for a push over $1,800 in the aftermath last week. That soon faded, and price action returned around the major daily moving averages of $1,788-96, but we are seeing some hunger again this week. 
  • Call it leaner market circumstances or whatever you want, but at the end of the day, the charts are still one of the greatest predictors of mood. 
  • For the time being, buyers appear to be a bit hesitant, but a break above $1,815 might pave the way for a stronger push towards the important trendline resistance around $1,860, and possibly even the November high at $1,877 – if the seasonal tailwind continues into January.

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