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Forex News February 1, 2022

#edgeforex #trading #market #money #forex #countries #dollar #currency #fed #rouble #russia #uk #equities #trade #crypto #bitcoin rouble

Rouble

•       Rouble extends advances, hardens up 0.6 percent on the day to 76.86 against the dollar for the first time since January 21st.

•       A offer has been made for Russia’s rouble. The news that Russia is sending Nat Gas to Europe via Ukraine has certainly helped.

•       European Gas Prices Tumble as Russia Increases Flows Via Ukraine.

•       It also comes after Ukraine has been very vocal about the fact that they aren’t seeing much/if any escalation in Russian actions, despite what many Western politicians/sources are saying.

UK

  • Approvals for UK Mortgages: 71.015k (Forecast 66k, Previous 66.964k).
  • UK Mortgage Lending: 3.571 billion (Forecast 3.522B, Previous 3.693B)
  • M4 Money Supply in the United Kingdom: 0.1 percent (Forecast -, Previous 0.7 percent )
  • BoE Consumer Credit: $800 million (Forecast 0.4B, Previous 1.233B)
  • GBPUSD is trading at 1.3484.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI Final in the United Kingdom: 57.3 (Forecast 56.9, Previous 56.9)
  • Production grows at the quickest rate in six months;
  • New order growth slows despite a little increase in new export business; and
  • Input cost and output price inflation moderates.
  • Kantar Worldpanel reports that UK grocery sales fell 3.8 percent year on year in the 12 weeks ending January 23.
  • Grocery price inflation was 3.8 percent in the four weeks ending January 23, up 0.3 percentage points from December.
  • Grocery sales were up 8.0 percent in the 12 weeks ending January 23 compared to the same period in pre-pandemic 2020
  • The more current ‘over the last 12 weeks’ statistics, in light of the recent pattern of weakening consumer demand.

Canadian GDP

  • What to look for in the Canadian GDP on Tuesday
  • The centrepiece of the North American schedule tonight is the ISM manufacturing survey for the US, although Canadian November GDP and the advanced December report are also coming.
  • While the previous news should be favourable, fresh data for December might indicate an economy already halted by the Omicron wave.
  • GDP growth for November is estimated to be 0.4 percent, a tad higher than the advance estimate, which appeared a touch low in comparison to existing industry data.
  • Retail sales were robust before Covid cases began to climb again, other services continued to rebound, and some respite was seen across the auto supply chain. The advance estimate for December, on the other hand, is anticipated to indicate a flat or slightly negative growth rate.
  • Early industry figures have been mixed, with a rather significant decrease in retailing and a flat reading for wholesaling unlikely to be offset by a slight increase in manufacturing.
  • Reports of individuals cancelling holiday travel and restaurant reservations may also appear in December’s data, but those are expected to be greater negatives in January as restrictions tighten.
  • Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continues to gain from increased oil prices. So far today, the USD/CAD is down 12 pips, while oil is up another 30 cents.

Equities

  • Yesterday, equities exploded, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.9 percent on a sustained rise led by growth stocks. The Nasdaq Composite (+3.4%) and Russell 2000 (+3.1%) exceeded with robust gains of more than 3.0%.
  • Given the bleak January, many have pointed to month-end rebalancing as the primary explanation for this uptick. Technicians will be encouraged that SPX has recaptured its 200dma of 4437.
  • Because of this upside, and the lack of Asian investors to temper the euphoria, all major European bourses are opening in positive position – as of 0620 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.6 percent, and the DAX was up 0.8 percent.
  • Oil prices rose, trading around seven-year highs set last week, as investors expected supplies will remain tight due to a restricted output increase by major oil producers and a robust post-pandemic rebound in fuel consumption. Of fact, the most recent monthly Reuters poll of OPEC oil output for January showed output growing by just 210kbpd MoM to 28.01mbmd, led by increases in Saudi Arabia while output decreased in Libya and Iraq, representing only half of the promised 400k increase in output. To the chagrin of all Crude bears worldwide.
  •  For UK Prime Minister Boris, ‘wait for the Sue Gray Report’ has become ‘wait for the Met Police Report’ — If the betting markets are any indication, as they typically are when it comes to mood, Boris is over the worst. The market has now dropped to nearly a 50% chance that he will be present at the Tory Party Conference in the first week of October.
  • In the European session, we have German Retail Sales and Unemployment data, UK Mortgage numbers, and a slew of Manufacturing PMIs from the continent – Most importantly, in my humble opinion, is the French CPI data, which we expect to print deflation (-0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis) rather than inflation.
  • Of course, as we should all be aware by now, inflation is the entire game at the moment, with a direct influence on monetary policy.

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