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Oil

• Oil prices have dropped by more than 3% on the day, as investors anticipate a de-escalation of tensions with Russia.
• WTI crude has dropped to $92.53, down more than 3% in trade today.
• This is down from a high of just above $95 earlier in Asia Pacific trading.
• The next setback came after the headlines, with Russia apparently stating that it is withdrawing military soldiers after certain manoeuvres were finished.
• The bottom for oil yesterday was $92.07-13, so there will be a crucial area to watch in the immediate term before we get to the major hourly moving averages of $90.95 to $91.58. Just keep in mind that oil prices are coming off an eight-week winning streak, which might potentially speak to highly stretched circumstances.
• If Russia issues a meaningful statement on de-escalating tensions, oil may take a deeper dip, but one that may be regarded “healthy” in the context of the positive run since late December.  
• Even though 3 percent seems enormous, the loss is still relatively limited for the time being. When compared to the 31 percent increase since the start of this run, it’s not much.

Kremlin

The Kremlin claims that US predictions that Russia might invade Ukraine on Wednesday are unfounded. Remarks from the Kremlin.

US threats are based on hysteria and are intended to inflame tensions in Europe Russia is still committed to the Minsk peace process. Tensions are heightened by a massive buildup of Ukraine soldiers in East Ukraine, as well as US rhetoric. We have always stated that troops will return to base following military exercises, and this is exactly what is occurring this time.

Meanwhile, Interfax reports that Russia’s southern military region has stated that its personnel have begun returning to Crimean bases. All of this is causing stocks to rise more on the day. Nasdaq futures are already up more than 2% as risk trades soar.

There’s also some irony in the statement, with the Kremlin claiming that Putin, in response to dates provided by the West for the alleged invasion of Ukraine, jokingly questioned what time the battle was going to start.

Russia’s Lavrov says it will continue communication with the West. Remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. A security deal with the US is feasible. All Russian military drills begin and conclude on time

If nothing else, the fact that he is implying discussion is crucial. It appears like tensions are easing slightly, but we’ll have to wait and see if that holds true in the next hours/days.