US nonfarm payroll
- Goldman Sachs provides a preview of the US nonfarm payroll report.
- A snippet from Goldman Sachs, where analysts are far below the consensus:
- GS estimates nonfarm payrolls increased by 225k in May, down from +428k in both of the previous two months and below the consensus of +323k
- A one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent, in line with expectations
- Job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labour market is tight, especially in May before the arrival of the youth summer workforce, and all four Big Data employment indicators we track point to a report that is below consensus.
- Job postings data also point to a sequential decline in labour demand, albeit to still very high levels.
- On the plus side, the May seasonal factors have evolved favourably in recent years and, in our opinion, represent a tailwind of around 100k.
- The White House ‘preview’ appears to be below consensus as well:
- The White House says it is not looking for a record-breaking job creation figure every month.
Bank of Korea
- In June and July, the Bank of Korea expects inflation to exceed 5%.
- South Korea’s central bank is the Bank of Korea.
- The statement follows the release of May inflation data, which reached levels not seen in over a decade:
- South Korea’s core CPI has risen to its highest year-on-year reading since February 2009.
- Inflation will be higher than 5% in June and July; Demand-side inflation pressure will likely build; and
- It is critical to manage inflation expectations.
- Citigroup’s fat-finger transaction could cost the bank more than $50 million.
- This is a data entry error, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar:
- On May 2, a trader in the firm’s Delta One trading unit in London was working from home during a bank holiday when he or she mistakenly added an extra zero to a trade early in European market hours.
- A five-minute selloff in the OMX Stockholm 30 Index that wreaked havoc on bourses from Paris to Warsaw, wiping out 300 billion euros ($322 billion) at one point
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