FX News this past week, November 27, 2021

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USDJPY putting in a significant turnaround on the weekly chart. Because of a new version, the US will apply visa restrictions on eight South African nations. South African travelers are being denied entry into Canada.

Novavax is attacking the variation. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Dutch Prime Minister is taking steps to limit the spread of COVID-19.

WHO raises preliminary study problems that may bring risk to a halt. WHO labels B.1.1.529 as a variation of concern, naming it Omicron. World Health Organization will publish a press announcement within the next hour

Johnson & Johnson: Testing against a new SA version has already begun.
• US oil hits new lows, according to EU agency headlines
• The EU Agency has designated a new COVID strain as a ‘variant of concern.’

The EU session began with a clear risk of getting off on the wrong foot. However, by the time the session began, the initial early European risk-off frenzy had cooled dramatically. At this point, it is difficult to read too much into these risk-off actions because the new version had been known for a few days before the sell-down. Because of the selling in the heels of Thanksgiving’s low liquidity markets, this is a little questionable dip.

The day witnessed a continuous flow of Covid variant news, which just kept the danger off the market till the weekend. The dollar has continued to weaken as a result of dropping yields. However, we received comments from a SA scientist who stated that we have every reason to believe that vaccinations are still avoiding serious COVID-19 mortality caused by variation. This is fantastic news, and it serves as a warning that if the vaccination is still effective against the variation, the danger of depression can go as soon as it came. We have no evidence to suggest otherwise. This is some anecdotal proof that it is.

On the subject of tensions between the United Kingdom and the European Union, Frost stated that the UK is prepared to invoke Article 16 since the gap between the EU and the UK remains significant.’ The market didn’t even blink at this since it was the same old, same old. There was a slew of significant selling across the board in the shares market. Oil was also battered, falling more than 12% on the day.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 has had its worst day since June 2020.
The Dow saw its largest one-day decline since October 28, 2020.
The Nasdaq concludes with its largest one-day decline since September 28.

With so many unknowns, there is reason to be concerned, yet there isn’t enough knowledge to provide either relief or utter terror. As a result, we have a cautious market moving into the weekend that just wants to be free of risk. There will be a quick evaluation next week, with a turnaround on Tuesday. If this new risk-off move turns out to be a false alarm, the NZDJPY is in a terrific position. Consider the prospects for the NZDUSD and NZDJPY on a more hawkish RBNZ that is on a rising cycle.

On the weekly chart, the USDJPY is exhibiting a significant reversal.
The significant drop in US 10-year rates has driven down the USDJPY pair as investors retreat from faster Fed tapering and faster rate rise forecasts due to virus worries. The weekly chart shows a significant rejection of 115.00 and, if the closing is correct, a bearish engulfing bar absorbing more than a month’s worth of price. Technically, this allows for a re-test of 112 the following week.
BUT, of course, this is all dependent on the most recent vaccination news. Nonetheless, technically significant

Due to a new version, the United States will apply travel restrictions on eight South African nations.
Restriction of movement
The more movement limitations that are erected, the worse it will be for risk and oil prices. The United States has joined Canada in limiting border access.

South African travelers are being denied entry into Canada. Canada will publish travel advice advising all Canadians not to travel to Southern Africa for the time being. All those who have visited seven southern African countries in the previous 14 days will be temporarily barred from entering the country.

Canada is the latest country to try to close its borders to the SA version. If the delta is any indication, it will be difficult to contain a variety.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the Dutch Prime Minister is taking steps to limit the spread of COVID-19.

In other COVID news, the Dutch PM moves. Stricter restrictions are needed to manage the COVID surge. Bars, restaurants, and non-essential stores will close at 5 p.m. on November 28 for three weeks. Schools will remain open. Keep an eye out for EUR vulnerability if the infection is believed to have contained the current strain. The previous delta variant surge over Europe will be reintroduced.

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