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Gold Price Volatility Unleashed: XAU/USD Vulnerable After Powell’s Remarkable Remarks

by Vinit Makol   ·  June 22, 2023   ·  

The gold price has exhibited a period of relative stability in recent weeks with sideways movement. However, recent developments have heightened concerns about potential downward pressure on the precious metal. Of particular significance are the comments made by Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, which have introduced a new level of vulnerability to XAU/USD. This article aims to delve deeper into the current gold market outlook and shed light on key levels to monitor for XAU/USD.

Unraveling the Current Gold Price Action: Analyzing Vulnerability and Key Levels to Watch for XAU/USD Amid Powell’s Statements

In the aftermath of Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, gold’s position has become increasingly delicate. Powell’s resolute stance on further rate increases, indicating that they are highly likely, coupled with his assertion that the June pause did not imply a halt in the hiking cycle, has raised concerns among investors. These remarks have set a new threshold for gold’s potential softening, exerting downward pressure on the precious metal.

Adding to the market’s sentiment, remarks by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic have also played a role. Although his comments leaned slightly dovish, suggesting a delay in rate increases until after the July meeting, the broader implications for the trajectory of rate hikes remain intact. This has intensified the downward pressure on gold, heightening concerns about its vulnerability in the current market landscape.

To gain deeper insights into the evolving trend, it is crucial to analyze the price action across various timeframes. On the 240-minute charts, the slope of the 89-period and 200-period moving averages has reversed, transitioning from an upward trajectory to a downward one. Despite limited price movement in recent weeks, XAU/USD has struggled to surpass these moving averages, and the formation of lower lows raises the probability of an impending downward move in the near term.

XAU/USD 240 minute Chart
Source dailyFX

Understanding key support and resistance levels is essential for market participants. On the daily chart, gold is currently holding above a robust support zone around 1930, encompassing the end-May low, the 89-day moving average, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud. However, breaching this critical level could expose the 200-day moving average, located around 1850. Conversely, to reverse the immediate downward pressure, gold would need to surmount the 1970-1985 range.

XAU/USD Daily Chart
Source dailyFX

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It is worth noting that the weakness observed in the gold market might be influenced by spillover effects from higher timeframe charts, as highlighted in previous articles. Earlier analyses have emphasized the challenges gold faces in surpassing the $2000 mark, urging caution when trading XAU/USD. Continuously monitoring the ongoing updates provides comprehensive analysis and enhances our understanding of the gold market’s dynamics.

Apart from the Fed’s influence, other economic factors can impact gold price action. Factors such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment towards risk assets can influence investors’ perception of gold as a safe-haven asset. It is crucial to consider these factors alongside the technical analysis to gain a holistic view of the gold market and make informed trading decisions.

As XAU/USD navigates through the current market conditions, traders and investors should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly. Monitoring key levels, observing price action, and keeping abreast of economic developments will be crucial in evaluating the potential vulnerability of XAU/USD. It is important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and flexibility is essential in adjusting trading positions to align with the evolving dynamics of the gold market.

Conclusion

The vulnerability of XAU/USD has increased following Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks and the cautious comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Analyzing price action, identifying key support and resistance levels, and considering higher timeframe analysis provide valuable insights for market participants. By combining technical analysis with an understanding of the broader economic landscape, traders can navigate the gold market with greater confidence. Stay informed, exercise caution, and adapt your strategies to effectively navigate the evolving dynamics of the XAU/USD market.

Click here to read our latest article on the Canadian Dollar

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