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Lira Crisis

by Unlisted Blog   ·  June 13, 2022  

Lira Crisis

by Unlisted Blog   ·  June 13, 2022  

The cost of insuring against Turkey’s government defaulting on its debt in the next five years has risen to its highest level in nearly two decades.

On Monday, credit default swaps hit an all-time high of 870 basis points, highlighting investor fears over the lira’s worsening depreciation and the government’s reliance on unconventional monetary policies to keep it afloat. The increase pushed CDS contracts above the levels seen during the global financial crisis of 2008 and all the way back to 2003 when Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected Prime Minister of Turkey.

The yield on the country’s 10-year dollar bonds hit an all-time high of 10.6 percent on Monday as a result of rising CDS pressure.

On June 9, the Treasury was obliged to act when currency losses escalated following President Erdogan’s pledge that his administration would keep cutting rates despite rising inflation.

The central bank will boost the reserve requirement ratio for lira-denominated commercial cash loans to 20% to control credit expansion and protect the currency, while the banking regulator will cut debt repayment times for consumers. The Treasury and Finance Ministries said that they will sell new lira-based revenue indexed bonds to discourage retail investors from buying dollars.

“The greater likelihood of a US recession, the unsupportive Fed policy, soaring US rates, and the wobbly lira — due to a brittle central bank policy — strengthen the Turkish CDS, and it’s likely not the end of the pain,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank.

The Turkish lira has lost 23% this year, making it the poorest performance among developing market currencies.

“Investors are growing concerned about Turkey’s capacity to keep its budget under control while spending so much on a near-impossible FX policy,” Ozkardeskaya added.

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