#edgeforex #forexsignals #forextrading #forex #markets #contract #prediction #pattern #money #mind #research #equal #cryptocurrency #bitcoin mind

Not all markets are created equal. Investors and economists have studied markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, which was founded in 1792, for hundreds of years. Other markets are still in their infancy, such as event-contract prediction markets. Traders of stocks and options are constantly attempting to forecast the future.

Only last July, the first-ever federally regulated events exchange, “Kalshi,” opened its virtual doors for a public beta. Users are already trading hundreds of thousands of shares in its most active markets, with each share representing someone’s prediction of the outcome of a future event. 

With more established prediction market platforms, such as PredictIt, trading volume in a number of markets can easily exceed millions of shares.

That piqued the interest of Moran Cerf, a neuroscientist and business professor at Northwestern University. He and his colleagues decided to build a prediction market as part of a research project, not to learn what the markets do, but to discover what could be done with the markets. In practise, the project did a little bit of both. 

People’s minds can be changed through the use of technology. It is difficult for the human brain to think about the future, and using technology can help us transport ourselves to the future and better imagine it. 

They chose the topic of climate change and recruited both believers and sceptics.

The goal was to see if participating in a climate-themed prediction market would change people’s minds because the market would act as a neutral arbiter of truth. 

Some people’s beliefs changed as a result of the experiment, but not solely because they took part. Participants’ levels of concern about climate change increased in direct proportion to the amount of money they won, regardless of whether they were believers or sceptics. 

“The nuance is that giving you a stock that is contrary to your beliefs and consistently makes money changes your mind,” Cerf explained. “When you constantly get feedback that your stocks that go against your beliefs are making money, you get feedback that your beliefs are not aligned with reality and that having the other beliefs would have been more financially rewarding.” 

Then, without realising it, you gradually shift your beliefs—even if your identity remains unchanged. “So the shift is not complete—it is in practise, but not in theory,” said one climate sceptic who began acting more like believers. 

The experiment was repeated, but this time the focus was on sports rather than climate change, and the results indicated that fandom is not as closely linked to one’s identity as environmental beliefs. It’s easier to accept a favourite team losing a game than it is to admit to being wrong about ideological principles. 

However, in order for prediction markets to change beliefs, participants must agree on a common arbiter of truth. 

“It only works if you accept that you lost when you lose and accept that you won when you win,” he said. “And in this game, you went in knowing the rules, and you got a result that was similar to going to trial.” “The jury either says ‘yes’ or ‘no.'”