Which currencies rise and fall when oil moves? This tracker measures the link between Brent crude and 14 major currencies from real daily prices, updated every day. Oil exporters are expected to strengthen when crude rises and importers to weaken, but in an oil shock the US dollar often wins against almost everyone, so the numbers below show what is actually happening right now.
Updated 09 Oct 2026. Data through 2026-10-06. Rebuilt automatically every day from ECB exchange rates and US EIA oil prices.
Oil right now
- Brent crude: $125.44 a barrel (1 day -0.1%, 1 week +10.1%, 1 month +20.1%)
- WTI crude: $96.24 a barrel
Key findings
- No currency is tracking oil closely right now. Over the last 90 trading days the strongest positive link is the Canadian dollar (0.15) and the most negative is the South African rand (-0.27).
- 12 of 14 currencies weaken on days oil rises, oil exporters included. That pattern points to oil shocks lifting the US dollar across the board, as a safe haven, rather than rewarding the countries that sell oil.
- Over the past month Brent moved +20.1%, and 11 of 14 currencies lost ground against the US dollar.
Brent vs the most and least oil-linked currencies (90 days)
All three rebased to 100 at the start of the period. Currency lines rise when the currency strengthens against the US dollar.
Currency tracker
Change shows how much each currency has strengthened (+) or weakened (-) against the US dollar. Oil link is the correlation between the currency’s daily move and Brent’s daily move over the last 90 trading days.
| Currency | Role | Per USD | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | Oil link | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOK Norwegian krone | oil exporter | 9.5643 | +0.39% | +0.1% | -3.1% | 0.08 | Little link |
| CAD Canadian dollar | oil exporter | 1.4250 | +0.02% | -0.5% | -3.0% | 0.15 | Little link |
| MXN Mexican peso | oil exporter | 17.9448 | +1.14% | -0.3% | -5.8% | -0.23 | Leans against oil |
| BRL Brazilian real | commodity exporter | 4.9686 | +0.32% | +4.9% | +3.2% | -0.18 | Leans against oil |
| ZAR South African rand | commodity exporter | 16.4903 | +0.82% | -0.7% | -3.0% | -0.27 | Leans against oil |
| AUD Australian dollar | commodity exporter | 1.4322 | +0.31% | -0.3% | -3.2% | -0.08 | Little link |
| EUR Euro | oil importer | 0.8874 | +0.58% | -0.8% | -3.0% | -0.20 | Leans against oil |
| JPY Japanese yen | oil importer | 158.09 | +0.09% | -0.6% | -2.1% | -0.06 | Little link |
| INR Indian rupee | oil importer | 96.42 | -0.12% | -0.5% | -2.0% | -0.20 | Leans against oil |
| KRW South Korean won | oil importer | 1338.78 | +0.39% | +1.1% | +0.7% | -0.02 | Little link |
| TRY Turkish lira | oil importer | 49.1790 | -0.04% | -0.4% | -1.5% | -0.01 | Little link |
| CNY Chinese yuan | oil importer | 6.7046 | +0.00% | -0.0% | +0.1% | -0.03 | Little link |
| GBP British pound | mixed | 0.7532 | +0.39% | +0.2% | -1.9% | -0.17 | Leans against oil |
| CHF Swiss franc | safe haven | 0.8305 | +0.06% | +0.3% | -2.6% | -0.02 | Little link |
The biggest oil days, and who won and lost
The largest one-day Brent moves of the last six months, with the two currencies that gained most and lost most against the dollar that day.
| Date | Brent | Strongest currencies | Weakest currencies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | +18.0% | CHF +1.0%, KRW +1.0% | ZAR -1.1%, MXN -0.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | +10.5% | CNY +0.0%, TRY -0.0% | NOK -0.9%, BRL -0.7% |
| 2026-07-23 | +11.9% | KRW +0.5%, ZAR +0.2% | CHF -0.4%, JPY -0.2% |
| 2026-07-13 | +9.8% | KRW +0.7%, MXN +0.2% | CHF -0.4%, INR -0.3% |
| 2026-04-17 | -15.4% | INR +0.5%, CAD +0.4% | TRY -0.2%, KRW -0.2% |
| 2026-04-08 | -11.6% | ZAR +3.6%, MXN +2.0% | TRY +0.3%, CAD +0.4% |
What this means for you
If you hold savings, travel, or pay for things in a currency that falls when oil rises, an oil shock hits you twice: once at the pump and again through the exchange rate. Check the reading for your currency above before a big purchase abroad or a transfer home.
Method and sources
- Exchange rates: European Central Bank daily reference rates, converted to US dollar terms.
- Oil: Brent and WTI spot prices from the US Energy Information Administration, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
- Oil link: Pearson correlation of daily log changes over the last 90 trading days on which both sources published. Above 0.25 reads as “rises with oil”, below -0.25 as “falls when oil rises”.
- Gulf currencies such as the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham are pegged to the dollar, so they are not shown.
Citing this tracker: Edge Forex, “Oil Shock Currency Tracker”, https://edge-forex.com/oil-currency-tracker/, accessed 09 Oct 2026.
Daily analysis of the stories behind these moves: Daily Forex Analysis. Daily setups and breakdowns on our Telegram: Join Pip Talk on Telegram.
This page is market data and commentary, not financial advice.