In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the EUR/HUF, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/INR.
EUR/HUF to fall below 410; EUR/PLN to fall below 4.78 – ING
Because of decreasing gas costs, CEE is still on the rise. ING economists predict that EUR/HUF will drop back to sub-410 levels and EUR/PLN will once again drop below 4.78.
In addition to decreasing gas costs, the area is seeing growing interest rate differentials. After the NBH emergency rate increase on Friday, we reached a new high in Hungary, and in Poland, we reached our highest levels since early September.
If the European Commission accepts the proposed measures, “we anticipate favorable circumstances for CEE to continue to appreciate, supported by further drops in gas price, with EUR/USD above recent lows.”
“We see a high potential for the Polish zloty to dip below 4.780 EUR/PLN and the Hungarian forint to recoup last week’s losses and return below 410 EUR/HUF.”
GBP/JPY is still below 168.00, with the possibility of more Japanese intervention.
On Thursday, the GBP/JPY cross drifted down for the third day and retreated even farther from the week’s previous peak, which was the cross’s highest level since February 2016. However, the cross manages to bounce back a few points from a three-day low and is presently trading in the 167.80-167.75 range.
The British pound is still under pressure from the ongoing political unrest in the UK, which is seen to be a significant driver pushing the GBP/JPY cross lower. In fact, according to sources, after the latest tax reduction debacle, MPs plan to attempt to remove newly elected UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. The Bank of England may be forced to take a cautious approach to increasing interest rates due to this, despite stubbornly rising inflation, as concerns about a more profound economic crisis develop.
On the other side, the Japanese yen finds strength in rumors that the government may step in once again to stop any further depreciation of the national currency. This favors the JPY’s relative safe-haven reputation and adds to the offered tone around the GBP/JPY cross, coupled with the cautious market attitude. Nevertheless, a significant difference in the stances taken on monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and other significant central banks continues to support market prices.
EUR/USD reclaims some lost territory and re-targets 0.9800.
The euro has a brief moment of happiness, which spurs the USD/EUR to rise from Thursday’s lows in the mid-0.9700s.
Despite the muted downward trend in the dollar, EUR/USD can restore some purchasing interest and make up some of the ground lost after Wednesday’s sharp loss. It now has its sights set on the 0.9800 level.
The German benchmark 10-year bund yields rose over 2.45% for the first time since August 2011, supporting the daily increase in spot rates and following the upward trend seen in their US counterparts throughout the curve.
Despite the continuing knee-jerk in the dollar, the weekly corrective move in the EUR/USD seems to have found some good support at 0.9750 for the time being.
Price movement around the euro is anticipated to closely track dollar trends, geopolitical tensions, and the Fed-ECB divergence in the interim. The latter is anticipated to continue to grow in light of recent findings from critical economic indicators, given the continued strength of the US economy.
USD/INR: The following predictions are at 84.20 and 85.90, according to SocGen
On Wednesday, the Indian rupee fell to a new record low against the US dollar at 83.21. The USD/INR may now aim for 84.20 and, subsequently, 85.90, according to Société Générale experts.
“Weekly MACD is diverging away from the trigger line suggesting an overstretched advance and is near to the peak attained in 2020,” the author writes. “However, indications of a substantial reversal are not yet obvious.”
The following estimates are at 84.20 and 85.90, respectively. To stop a short-term downtrend, the “Low made earlier this week at 82.00 must be resisted.”
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