Hey there, traders! It looks like the greenback is off to a rocky start this week. The USD Index (DXY) gave up some gains yesterday and is trading with marginal losses near 101.80 today. But don’t worry, there’s still hope for a comeback! The index took a hit yesterday due to some banking jitters that fueled risk aversion among investors. But today, we’re seeing a slight improvement in the risk-linked market. Maybe those investors finally got their morning coffee and woke up to a better day!
Of course, we can’t ignore the macro scene. We’ve got some important economic data coming up today, including Durable Goods Orders, MBA Mortgage Applications, and Advanced Goods Trade Balance. Keep an eye out for those!
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Fed rate hike. Investors are still hoping for a 25 bps rate hike at the May 3 event, but the probability of that happening has shrunk a tad to around 75%. Hey, it’s not over ’til it’s over, right?
Looking at the bigger picture, the USD Index continues to navigate through a consolidative phase as we await another rate increase in May by the Fed. But there are a few things to keep in mind. For one, there’s the issue of disinflation, which is still a concern. And let’s not forget the looming geopolitical tensions with Russia and China, as well as the US-China trade conflict.
So, where does that leave us in terms of the USD Index? Well, we’re seeing some initial resistance near the 102.00 level, but there’s always a chance for a pivot in the Fed’s hiking cycle. Stay tuned, folks!
And now for some exciting news: we’ve got a bunch of key events coming up this week in the US, including the Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, and more. It’s like a trader’s dream come true!
Alright, let’s wrap this up. As of now, the USD Index is losing 0.09% and could potentially drop to 100.00 or even 99.81 if it breaches 100.78. But if it manages to climb past the 102.80 level, we could see a surge up to 103.05 or even 103.21. It’s all up in the air, folks, but we’re keeping our fingers crossed for a greenback rally!
Thanks for tuning in, and happy trading!