In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD.
USDJPY Price Analysis: Moderately bid between the 100 and 200 SMAs
Before Monday’s European session, USD/JPY maintained its defensive position around 147.20, modestly bid to hold the previous day’s losses.
The Yen pair does this by remaining within a one-month-old symmetrical triangle and maintaining the bounce off the 200-SMA.
The USDJPY values are expected to rise in light of the quote’s most recent recovery from the important moving average and the sluggish oscillators.
The 100-SMA and mentioned triangle’s top line convergence, which was close to 148.20 at the time of press, looks to be a difficult obstacle for the USDJPY bulls to overcome.
The swing high from October 23 at 149.70 precedes the 150.00 round mark to test the USDJPY bulls even if the price moves over 148.20.
After that, it’s possible for a run-up toward renewing the annual high, which is now at 152.000, to occur.
The bottom line of the triangle mentioned above, close to 146.00, will test the sellers if the 200-SMA, around 146.50, is broken to the downside.
The rising support line from October 5, which was at 145.80 at the time of publication, is another downside filter that is present.
GBPUSD maintains above the 1.1300 level and is still on the defensive despite a slight USD increase.
The GBP/USD pair enters the new week with a tiny negative gap as it tries to take advantage of Friday’s significant rebound from a two-week low. However, spot prices remained above 1.1300 during the early North American session and continued to be at the whim of US Dollar price movements.
Investors become wary amid worries about challenges brought by China’s determination to uphold its economically damaging zero-COVID policy. This helps boost USD demand and puts downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair, coupled with rising US Treasury bond rates. However, the chances of another massive 75 bps Fed rate rise in December are dwindling, which supports the major and limits any additional gains for the dollar.
The carefully anticipated NFP revealed that, in contrast to predictions for 200K, the US economy created 261K jobs in October. But this was far lower than the 315K estimate from the previous month, which had been upwardly revised. In addition, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in September to 3.7% in October, while average hourly earnings decreased from 5% in September to 4.7% in October YoY. The mixed findings stoked rumors that the Fed would scale down the rate increases it plans to make.
AUDUSD Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-HMA to reduce intraday losses above 0.6400
After retreating from the 200-HMA support ahead of Monday’s European session, the AUD/USD remains defensive around 0.6430.
However, despite negative MACD and RSI signs, the Aussie pair continues to trade below a weekly resistance line.
This suggests that the quotation will continue to decline, emphasizing the 200-HMA support area of around 0.6410.
Then, the AUDUSD pair’s 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, located respectively at 0.6370 and 0.6330, may be used to test the bearish movements.
A two-week-old horizontal support zone at 0.6270 will be critical for sellers to monitor if the AUDUSD prices stay weak beyond 0.6330. A downward breach of the same might explore the annual low under 0.6170.
However, recovery advances need a successful breach of the weekly resistance line, preferably at 0.6475.
Even if the AUDUSD price stays stronger over 0.6475, the pair’s buyers may be willing to hold off on purchasing until there has been a clear upward breach of the previous monthly top at 0.6550.
Nevertheless, throughout the run-up, the round number of 0.6500 can provide a temporary pause.
USDCAD pares the greatest daily loss since 2016, over 1.3500, emphasizing BOC’s Macklem US inflation forecast.
Following a gap-up beginning, USD/CAD is stagnant at 1.3530 as bulls look for new cues ahead of Monday’s European session. The recent strengthening of the Loonie might be attributed to the decline in WTI Crude Oil, Canada’s principal export, and the risk-off sentiment. However, the recent flash catalysts from Canada and the US presented a challenge to the pair buyers.
The market’s most recent risk aversion may be related to recent worries about China’s tighter border restrictions and Russian geopolitical tensions. Concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future move are varied, in part because of the recently conflicting US employment data.
The week got off to a bad start when China rejected the idea of abandoning the zero-covid policy, and virus numbers increased in the land of the dragon. Even yet, the purchasers remain optimistic due to expectations of a rise in private investments in the second-largest economy in the world.
Nevertheless, the WTI Crude Oil records slight losses at $91.00 after hitting a new monthly high the day before due to concerns about weaker demand and optimism that the US may mediate a deal with Russia to relieve the supply shortage.
It should be recalled that the previous day’s USDCAD values were drowned by the discrepancy between the US and Canadian employment figures.
For October, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 261K, up from the projected 200K and the 315K previously revised higher. The Unemployment Rate shocked the markets by increasing to 3.7% compared to earlier estimates of 3.5% and market expectations of 3.6%.
However, the Canadian employment report for October showed positive results, with the Net Change in Employment increasing by 108.3K, compared to the 10K projected and 21.1K before. Furthermore, the Participation Rate grew to 64.9% vs. predictions of it being steady at 64.7%, while the Unemployment Rate reissued 5.2% data versus projections of 5.3%.
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