In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/TRY and USD/CHF.
EUR/USD may fluctuate slightly at 1.03, according to Commerzbank
Due to weak holiday activity, the US dollar is still under pressure. Commerzbank economists anticipate that the EUR/USD pair will remain close to the 1.03 level.
It will become dull, so sit back and relax. “No data is expected for release in the US owing to the Thanksgiving holiday. However, we are not expected to see something new from the eurozone either.
“Until the weekend, I anticipate calm Dollar markets with minor swings in the EUR/USD rate around the 1.03 level. Therefore, let’s sit and unwind, as it can become monotonous.
Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, the USD/JPY is expected to fall below 139.00.
During the first hour of Thursday’s European session, USD/JPY maintains its downward position close to the weekly low of 138.60. By doing so, the Yen pair records a three-day losing run despite disregarding mixed figures from Tokyo and general US Dollar weakness.
In November, Japan’s industrial activity decreased at its quickest rate in two years, while the services sector’s activity also decreased. Despite this, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan fell to 49.4 from 50.7 in the previous edition and expectations. Additionally, the Services equivalent flashed a value of 50.00 as opposed to the 53.1 predicted and 53.2 recorded before.
In addition, Japan’s Coincident Index increased from 101.8 to 101.4, above market estimates of 101.1, while the Leading Economic Index came in at 97.5, behind projections of 97.4 and previous readings of 101.30.
However, lessening concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) sudden rate rises, particularly in light of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes from the previous day, maintains the USD/JPY optimistic. The prospects for Chinese government stimulus, a reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and hopes for a speedy economic recovery from the unfortunate COVID-19-led economic circumstances are all on the same page.
USD/TRY follows negative options market indications ahead of the CBRT Interest Rate Decision.
As traders prepare for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s Interest Rate Decision, USD/TRY is under pressure at 18.60, down for the third day (CBRT).
However, despite high inflation, the Turkish central bank is expected to continue to differ from its international peers. Market consensus points to a third straight rate drop to 9.0% from the current level of 10.5%.
The pair’s values are also affected by the negative signals from the options market in addition to the pre-CBRT consolidation.
The one-month risk reversal (RR), a measure of the disparity between call and put options, has fallen as low as the -0.030 level. The greatest loss since late August was recorded last week, although the weekly RR prints a +0.050 number to consolidate it.
Turkey’s November manufacturing confidence and capacity utilization numbers may be immediate triggers.
USD/CHF Price Analysis: An oversold RSI might test bears at the 0.9370-55 support zone.
Sellers applaud the third straight day of declines as USD/CHF accepts offers to retest the weekly low at 0.9390 on Thursday.
This continues the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair’s Tuesday U-turn from 0.9600 and the previous day’s damaging breach of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from January to November. The negative bias, however, is strengthened by the bearish MACD indications.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), now at 14, indicates practically oversold circumstances and suggests that the USD/CHF pair has little further to fall.
Consequently, the bears focus their attention mainly in the vicinity of 0.9370-55, which includes lows seen in August and so far in November.
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.9310 and the 0.9300 round figure might function as additional downside filters to test the pair further falls if the USD/CHF bears manage to break through the 0.9355 support.
Please click here for the Market News Updates from 23 November, 2022.