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Despite Bank of Canada inflation, the USD/CAD continues to rise.

by Seerat Fayaz   ·  December 14, 2021   ·  

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The Bank of Canada’s inflation mandate is extended, yet the USD/CAD appears to be rising. 

As Omicron concerns over China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) grow, the New Zealand dollar weakens versus the US dollar. Japan industrial data is about to hit the wires. 

NZD/USD is aiming for a December low after being rejected by the 9-day Exponential Moving Average.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) agreed to prolong the annual inflation target of 2%, which was slated to expire on January 1st. This gives the Bank of Canada more leeway in combatting increasing prices while the economy absorbs labour market slack. 

Inflation in Canada is nearing a two-decade high. The mandate has been extended until 2026. The Canadian Dollar did not respond to the news, although the Loonie has been pushed down by decreasing oil prices. 

After China reported its first Omicron case and the United Kingdom experienced its first fatality from the new strain, the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar dropped against the greenback overnight. At least one person has died as a result of the variation, according to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

Meanwhile, in the United States, cases are on the increase, with an average daily case count well over 100,000. Economists are concerned about this ahead of the crucial Christmas travel season, when cases were beginning to trend lower due to growing vaccination rates. Lockdowns on a large scale are improbable in the United States right now, but local and state actions, as well as public anxiety, might stifle economic progress. 

On a year-over-year basis, food inflation in New Zealand was 4.0 percent in November, according to figures released this morning. This compares to 3.7 percent in October. Early this year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand began boosting rates ahead of other major central banks, raising fears that the aggressive monetary policy might stifle the island nation’s economic progress.

Later this week, the country’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will be released. Analysts predict that Q3 growth would be -1.6 percent, with the negative result owing mostly to a spate of Delta strain lockdowns. 

In November, India’s inflation rate was 4.91 percent year on year. The figure was lower than the 5.1 percent expected by analysts, although it was higher than the 4.48 percent recorded in October. Japan’s industrial output data is due in October, while China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) data is due in November. A robust FDI number from China might help calm some fears about the Omicron variant’s arrival on American soil.

With the pair breaching over the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement line, USD/CAD has retraced the majority of its post-BoC plunge. The multi-month high of 1.2854 set in December may act as a barrier, but passing it would certainly pave the way for more gains. A move down, on the other hand, will most likely go for the rising 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Fib levels are also expected to provide intermediate support.

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