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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Double Top Breaks Aussie Dollar Amid Divergence in Fundamentals

by Onuraag Das   ·  July 28, 2023  

The AUD/USD currency pair experiences heightened volatility with a significant “Double Top Breaks Aussie Dollar,” suggesting a potential trend reversal. Divergent fundamental factors between AUD and USD contribute to a sharp 1.10% downtrend. Traders closely watch the upcoming US core PCE data release and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy stance amid economic concerns.

Double Top Breaks Aussie Dollar

A double top pattern is one of the essential technical formations in the realm of forex trading. In this case, the AUD/USD currency pair has formed two consecutive peaks around the same price level, followed by a decline below the pattern’s neckline. This neckline serves as a critical level of support, and a breach below it is considered a bearish signal, potentially leading to further downward movement. Technical analysts and traders closely monitor the neckline at 0.6600, as well as the swing low at 0.6596, as these levels could trigger additional selling pressure in the AUD/USD pair.

Fundamental Divergence between AUD and USD

Fundamental factors play a pivotal role in influencing exchange rates, and the AUD/USD currency pair is no exception. The United States and Australia have experienced contrasting economic performances, leading to a fundamental divergence that has fueled significant movements in the currency pair. On one hand, the US dollar has benefited from strong economic data, including robust GDP figures and positive durable goods orders, bolstering the currency’s value. Conversely, the Australian dollar has faced headwinds, particularly in light of disappointing retail sales data, which has weighed on the currency and sparked a selloff.

Source: dailyFX

US core PCE Data and Inflation Expectations

The US core PCE price index, a closely watched inflation metric, holds significant importance for financial markets, especially when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve considers the core PCE data as its preferred gauge of inflation, and any divergence from expectations could have implications for the central bank’s stance on interest rates and other policy measures. Market participants eagerly anticipate the core PCE release as it may influence inflation expectations and provide further insights into the potential path of interest rates. A lower-than-expected reading could mitigate the hawkish sentiment generated by recent positive economic data, potentially affecting the strength of the US dollar.

Interest Rate Hike Expectations for Australia

Amid economic uncertainties and divergent performance, the Reserve Bank of Australia faces the delicate task of managing interest rate expectations. While money markets have priced in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the RBA, the central bank’s decision ultimately hinges on the trajectory of Australian economic data. Should economic indicators continue to point downwards, the RBA may be inclined to take a dovish approach, indicating a potential repricing of interest rate hike expectations. Such a dovish stance could put additional pressure on the Australian dollar as investors adjust their outlook on the pro-growth currency.

Source: dailyFX

IG Client Sentiment Data and Contrarian View

Sentiment analysis plays a crucial role in understanding market dynamics, and IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) data provides insights into retail traders’ positioning. Currently, retail traders are net long on the AUD/USD currency pair, with 76% of them holding long positions. At DailyFX, a contrarian view is often taken to crowd sentiment, with the belief that the majority sentiment could point towards a potential market reversal. The bearish sentiment among retail traders aligns with the technical and fundamental bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair, signaling possible downside potential.

Source: dailyFX


The AUD/USD currency pair finds itself at a crucial juncture, with the emergence of a double top pattern and significant fundamental divergence between the Australian dollar and the US dollar. The neckline breach at 0.6600 and the swing low at 0.6596 will be critical levels to watch as they could pave the way for further bearish momentum. The upcoming US core PCE data release will likely influence market sentiment, especially regarding inflation expectations and interest rate projections.

In the backdrop, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s approach to monetary policy remains a key factor, and any dovish repricing could add pressure to the Australian dollar. As traders navigate through this environment of heightened volatility, they need to closely monitor technical patterns, economic indicators, and market sentiment to make well-informed trading decisions.

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