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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls maintain above 1.0600, but the northward route seems rocky.

by Elena Martin   ·  March 17, 2023  
In a two-day rally, the EUR/USD rebounds to an intraday high, consolidating Wednesday’s significant losses. Buyers are encouraged by the sustained breach of the two-day-old bullish channel at 200-HMA. Bulls are encouraged by almost overbought RSI levels and slow MACD indications. The 100-HMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement convergence protect the current upward trend.

While the EUR/USD exhibits a two-day advance in the early hours of Friday, bids increase to repeat the intraday peak of around 1.0650. In doing so, the central currency pair applauds the upward breakout of the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) inside an upward trend channel that has been in place for two days.

The 200-HMA breakthrough joins a bullish channel formation to maintain EUR/USD bulls in control. Still, the rising momentum is running out of steam as the RSI enters the overbought territory, and the MACD signals remain sluggish despite being positive recently.

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A confluence of the 100-HMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s sharp decline on Wednesday, at approximately 1.0665, is also a difficult obstacle for the bulls to overcome.

If the pair stays stronger at 1.0665, the top line of the channel above will be around 1.0690 at the latest, which would challenge the quote’s further increases. On Wednesday, the monthly high was around 1.0760.

The 200-HMA level around 1.0630 limits the EUR/USD pair’s immediate downside, and a breach of it would emphasize the stated channel’s bottom line, near 1.0620, as the primary support.

If the EUR/USD pair breaks through the bullish chart pattern and falls below 1.0620, it might reach the monthly low set on Wednesday at around 1.0515.

Hourly chart for EUR/USD

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Source: FX Street

Trend: Little upward movement anticipated