Just below the 1.0100 level, the EURUSD is under pressure. The outcome of the US midterm elections continues to be the focus of the markets. Later in the week, US inflation data will be the focus.
As long as sellers are concentrated at 1.0100, the EURUSD has had difficulty testing or breaking through that important resistance area on Wednesday.
EURUSD: Around 1.0100, upward is constrained. The EURUSD surrenders some gains following three straight days of gains and in reaction to yet another unsuccessful effort to re-enter or cross the 1.0100 area, usually on the back of a lackluster dollar recovery.
The current shift in sentiment toward the dollar, mainly sparked by October’s Payrolls, has supported the pair’s significant upward bias and the rest of the risk-associated universe. However, the change in the money markets has been quite apparent, with yields stagnating near the higher half of the current range on both sides of the Atlantic.
Euroland has no noteworthy data points; the sole scheduled auction is for a 10-year Bund. MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the US in the first turn, followed by wholesale inventories and speeches by J. Williams and T. Barkin of the FOMC.
What should I look for in the EUR?
Amid yet another bullish push in the dollar, the EURUSD is under some selling pressure close to the 1.0100 level.
Price movement around the euro is anticipated to closely track dollar trends, geopolitical tensions, and the Fed-ECB divergence in the interim. The primary barrier to a long-term rebound in the pair is the Fed’s recent decision to raise rates and the possibility of a tighter stance.
In the long term, the weak feeling around the euro is further exacerbated by the growing suspicion of a probable regional recession, which seems to be supported by declining sentiment indicators and an impending downturn in certain fundamentals.
Italy’s industrial production (Thursday) and Germany’s final inflation rate are essential events in the eurozone this week (Friday).
The continuation of the ECB’s rate hike cycle vs. rising recession concerns are important topics simmering in the background. Impact of the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing energy shortage on the prognosis for inflation and growth in the area.
Watching the EURUSD levels
The pair is now down 0.09 percent at 1.0061, and a break of 0.9730 (the month’s low set on November 3) will lead to 0.9704 (the week’s low set on October 21) and eventually 0.9631. (monthly low October 13). In contrast, the first level of resistance is at 1.0096 (the monthly high from November 8), then 1.0197 (the monthly high from September 12), and 1.0368. (monthly high August 12).