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Feeble Forecast for UK Inflation Sparks Doubt: GBP/USD Alert

by Onuraag Das   ·  May 23, 2023   ·  

In the realm of currency trading, GBP/USD pair has been drawing attention as the feeble forecast for UK inflation raises eyebrows. It is anticipated that the inflation rate for April will experience a significant drop to 8.2%. However, market participants are starting to wonder if this optimistic projection is truly realistic.

Examining the 4-hour chart, we observe that the pair recently tested a crucial 50-bar moving average (MA) and managed to attract buyers on Friday. This moving average will continue to hold immense significance as we approach the release of the inflation rate data. Traders dealing with GBP/USD have their eyes locked on this impending event, particularly due to the potentially unrealistic forecast of a 2-percentage point drop.

Markets Question Feeble Forecast for UK Inflation as April Inflation Rate Expected to Drop to 8.2%

The skepticism surrounding the inflation forecast stems from the fact that in March, the consumer price inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 10.1% on a year-on-year basis. Although this figure was slightly lower than February’s 10.4%, it exceeded the market’s expectation of 9.8%. These recent developments have left investors questioning the likelihood of a substantial decrease to 8.2% in April.

Despite the doubts surrounding the inflation forecast, the British pound has remained resilient, maintaining a strong value around $1.2435. It is currently hovering near its 12-month high of $1.2679, which was reached on May 10th. The currency’s robust performance has been underpinned by money markets, where an 80% probability is assigned to the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in June. Additionally, there is a 79% chance of a 5% Bank Rate by September. It is worth noting that the recent rate hike by the Bank of England to 4.5% marks its highest level since 2008.

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While the British pound maintains its strength, there is speculation that the US Federal Reserve may pause its current tightening cycle. Policymakers are carefully considering concerns regarding inflation’s potential impact on economic growth. In recent discussions, positive developments have emerged with regards to the US debt ceiling. US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has mentioned the possibility of a deal being reached in the near future, possibly as early as tonight or tomorrow.

Returning to the 4-hour chart analysis, the crucial 50-bar moving average (MA) remains a significant level to watch as we approach the forthcoming release of the inflation rate data. If the GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit an upward bias, it will need to contend with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which recently dipped below the 50-midline. Traders and investors are closely monitoring this development as it could influence the market sentiment surrounding the currency pair.

Considering the current dynamics, should the 50-day MA be breached, the expected trading range for today could be between support at 1.2350 and resistance at 1.2400. Traders will be observing these levels carefully, keeping a close eye on any shifts in the market sentiment.

As the eagerly anticipated release of the UK’s April inflation rate approaches, market participants are questioning the realism of the projected 8.2% drop. With recent fluctuations in consumer price inflation and contrasting expectations, traders are on high alert for any surprises that may impact the GBP/USD pair. Uncertainty prevails as the market eagerly awaits the crucial data release, which will undoubtedly shape the currency’s near-term trajectory.


In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair faces uncertainty as the market questions the realistic nature of the projected drop in UK inflation. Traders remain cautious amidst conflicting signals, while the British pound maintains strength supported by expectations of interest rate hikes. With the upcoming release of inflation data, market participants eagerly await outcomes that will shape the currency pair’s trajectory. Overall, caution prevails as traders navigate key technical levels and monitor market sentiment.

Click here to check out our latest article about the GBP/USD affecting the market

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