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- So far on the day, major currencies have seen little movement.
- The dollar is trading more mixed and modestly down, although the moves are minor and light to begin European trade.
- Equities are trending up, and commodities currencies have had a good start to the week, but the gains for the loonie, aussie, and kiwi aren’t particularly impressive.
- Right now, we’re seeing a 0.2 percent shift across the board for dollar pairings, which suggests a more sluggish mindset.
- The USD/JPY is down approximately 20 pips to 115.35, although it isn’t moving much on the day.
- Resistance @ 115.69 was refused on the upside, and buyers continue to have a greater bullish near-term bias, so that pretty well sums up the risk levels on both sides of the coin. The modest decline today is due to lower Treasury rates for the day. Treasury rates have fallen 2.2 basis points to 1.934 percent.
- Elsewhere, the EUR/USD is still deciding what to do after retreating from Friday’s peak.
- • The price has now dropped below its 100-hour moving average (red line), which makes things a little more intriguing.
- The break below that suggests that the near-term bias is now more neutral, though the 100-day moving average @ 1.1419 is a key level to be mindful of ahead of the close as well.
• ECB officials are attempting to avoid setting unrealistic expectations based on market pricing, which might make it difficult for the euro to maintain its post-ECB momentum in the coming weeks.
- Oil bulls are not throwing in the towel just yet and the latest dribble lower was quickly bought up as we see a test of yesterday’s low come into play • Oil bulls are not throwing in the towel just yet and the latest dribble lower was quickly bought up as we see a test of yesterday’s low come into play • Oil bulls are not throwing in the towel just yet and the latest dribble lower was quickly bought up as we see a test of yesterday’s low come into
- Stocks in a more bullish mood, for the time being.
- European indexes are moving forward with gains of approximately 1.5 percent on the day, while US futures are also gaining ground on the day so far. The S&P 500 futures are presently up 0.7 percent, the Nasdaq futures are up 0.8 percent, and the Dow futures are up 0.6 percent. After a relatively modest performance yesterday, the equity market appears to be in good shape, but don’t allow this confidence blind you to the reality that the true test will come tomorrow.
- The biggest risk event on the calendar this week is the US consumer inflation data, which will set the tone for Fed expectations and, as a result, market mood before the week ends.
- Even if stocks are holding up better today, the technicals remain mostly unconvinced.
- The S&P 500 is still stuck between its important daily moving averages, while the Nasdaq is still well below its own 200-day moving average. Put together, that doesn’t exactly scream “strong bullish undertone” at the moment.