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- Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 5% against 6.8 percent on January 10.
- Significant decline in the Atlanta Fed’s GBP estimate for the fourth quarter.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for 4Q growth has dropped to 5%.
- Following this morning’s poor retail sales data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 4Q GDP growth fell to 5% from 6.8 percent.
- The GDPNow model estimates real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) at 5.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 on January 14, down from 6.8 percent on January 10.
- Following the January 10 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.5 percent to 2.0 percent was offset slightly by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 17.
- Cryptocurrencies As part of a general downward trend, it resurfaced.
- It is too early to declare that a fresh crypto surge has begun.
- Over the last 24 hours, the value of the cryptocurrency market increased by about 3% to 2.07 trillion. Exceeding the psychologically significant circular mark pushed currency demand outside the top ten.
- Separately, the move into riskier assets in regular financial markets and the sinking dollar boosted demand for bitcoin. Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has fallen slightly short of the total crypto market, reducing its share to 40%. However, it is too early to declare that a fresh crypto rise has begun. The crypto market is still 30% off its early November highs, and capitalization growth is unequal.
- Surprisingly, despite rising market value, the bitcoin fear and greed index fell one point to 21 overnight. The surge from yesterday did not gather traction at the start of the day on Thursday.
- Fixing over $45K vs $43.5K currently would validate the bulls’ strength. Until then, it is realistic to expect a comeback inside the declining channel. If the dollar begins to expand again in the near future, stock markets will be impacted. In these conditions, the cryptocurrency market risks turning to the negative, halting the comeback, and continuing in a long-term downward channel. We should be careful of such a steady drop since it drains optimists.
- In 2018, the fall became uniformly smooth in the second part of the year, and a wide variety of crypto-enthusiasts moved to standby mode until mid-2020.
- WTI crude oil is approaching the best prices of 2021. Since late December, China’s lockdowns and hundreds of aircraft cancellations have done little to dampen buying demand for crude oil. Crude oil is again challenging last year’s high of $85.41 per barrel. It reached an all-time high of $84.22 today before falling $1.70 to $83.82.
- Since hitting a low of $66 in late December, it’s been on a one-way surge. The next stage for oil will be difficult.
- According to a report today, China has decided to release strategic oil reserves at varying amounts around February 1 depending on whether crude is at $75 or $85.
- With brent above $86 and only a few pennies away from the October high, the chances of additional activity increase. Simultaneously, SPR discharges a tiny quantity of oil overall.
- What we’re witnessing in terms of jet fuel demand destruction and reduced driving should greatly exceed this – but it doesn’t. We’ve had two massive build-up in US gasoline inventories in a row, and the market has blasted right through it. The purchasing is unrelenting.