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Forex News May 19, 2022

HSBC 

HSBC lowered its S&P 500 year-end target to 4,450 from 4,900 previously. Another of the subsequent calls/revisions to the equity outlook Their previous request for 4,900 people was made on January 10, so it predates the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China lockdowns. 

There is no doubt that the inflation outlook and the squeeze on businesses (and thus earnings) and consumers are now part of the picture. 

In case you missed it, Deutsche Bank predicted earlier today that the S&P 500 would fall to 3,650 before recovering to around 4,700 to 4,800 by year’s end.

China

  • China reportedly in talks with Russia to purchase oil for strategic reserves 
  • Beijing and Moscow set to strengthen ties Bloomberg reports that Beijing is in talks with Moscow to purchase additional oil supplies in order to replenish its strategic crude stockpiles with cheap Russian oil. According to sources familiar with the plan, the talks will take place at the government level, with little direct involvement from oil companies. 
  • In the end, it’s just good business from China’s perspective. Despite the fact that the US and Europe are scrutinising them for doing so, the political alliance between China and Russia has not changed.
  • Not to mention Taiwan’s continued role as a geopolitical puzzle piece.

Dollar

  • The greenback trails against the remainder of the significant cash coalition on the meeting.
  • Risk tones are remaining defensive on the session, but that hasn’t helped the dollar much this time around – at least for now. 
  • If the equities slide continues to US trading, it may only be a matter of time before the dollar arrests its drop today and things turn around.
  • Risk sentiment remains defensive in the session, but this hasn’t helped the dollar much – at least not yet. The market is maintaining flows into the franc instead, for two reasons, as stated here. 
  • If the equities slide continues into US trading, it might only be a matter of time before the dollar stops falling today and things turn around. 
  • The amounts in each “intervention” have been fairly consistent, so this is not unusual. They intervened because equities are under pressure today, with the Topix down 1.3 percent following the drop in US stocks yesterday.

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