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Powell’s Speech Reveals: A Solid Consensus Among Fed Policymakers Anticipating Multiple Rate Hikes by Year-End

by Onuraag Das   ·  June 29, 2023  

US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fourth Conference on Financial Stability hosted by the Bank of Spain, in Madrid, on Thursday reveals:

Core Quote

A strong majority of fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year end. Repeats labor market ‘very tight,’ inflation ‘well above’ goal. Some indicators in the housing market have turned up; housing sector activity still far below its peak US core pce inflation likely rose 4.7% in May from year earlier; overall pce index estimated to have risen 3.9%.

Will take time for full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. Process of getting to 2% inflation ‘has a long way to go’. Bank stresses that emerged in march ‘may well lead’ to a further tightening in credit conditions. Extent of effects from tighter credit conditions remains uncertain. Economy faces headwinds from tighter credit conditions. Cannot take resilience of financial system for granted.

US banking system strains have eased, deposit flows have stabilized. I look forward to evaluating proposals for changes to supervision, regulation of banks of the size of svb, and implementing them where appropriate.

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