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Rouble Weakening Beyond 100 Against Dollar – Hitting 7 Month Low

by Onuraag Das   ·  August 14, 2023  

In a disconcerting turn of events, the Russian rouble has faced another setback as it slumped to a 17-month low, breaching the significant threshold of 100 against the US dollar. This decline marks a concerning milestone, with the rouble weakening beyond this level for the first time in almost a year and a half. The rouble’s downward spiral has been attributed to a confluence of factors, including robust foreign exchange demand and Russia’s shrinking balance of trade, sending ripples of concern throughout the financial world.

Rouble Weakening: Struggles Continue as Currency Hits 17-Month Low Against Dollar

As the clock struck 0724 GMT on Monday, the rouble displayed a concerning 1.4% weakness against the dollar, settling at 100.84. This decline not only breached the psychological level of 100 but also illuminated the struggles that the currency has been enduring for an extended period. The situation was no better against the euro, as the rouble lost 1.5% against the European currency to reach 110.44, mirroring its 17-month low against the dollar. Furthermore, the rouble also ceded 1.3% against the yuan, reaching 13.87, underscoring the currency’s widespread vulnerability.

The rouble’s tumultuous trajectory can be traced back to the political upheaval caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This event unleashed a series of economic shocks that have continued to reverberate throughout Russia’s financial landscape. The currency’s record low of 120 against the dollar in March of the previous year marked a nadir, only to be followed by a resilient rebound to a seven-year high. This resurgence was attributed to capital controls and surging export revenues, which momentarily stabilized the rouble.

Russia’s central bank has been grappling to pinpoint the cause of the rouble’s weakening. Initially blaming falling export revenues and recovering imports, the central bank’s narrative encountered a new twist when a Kremlin aide pointed to loose monetary policy as the culprit. This discord within Russia’s monetary authorities underscores the complexity of the situation and the challenges they face in crafting a cohesive strategy to stabilize the currency.

Amid these developments, the performance of Brent crude oil, a key benchmark for Russia’s primary export, adds another layer of complexity. With a decline of 0.9% to $86.05 a barrel, the oil market remains relatively high, not far from a seven-month peak experienced the previous week. Despite this, the rouble has failed to reap any benefits from the robust oil prices. This disjointed relationship between the currency and oil prices further contributes to the market’s perplexity.

The rouble’s challenges have been compounded by a twofold dilemma: robust demand for foreign currency and limited supply from exporting firms. As the demand for foreign currency continues to rise, the rouble’s vulnerability is exposed, highlighting the urgent need for effective countermeasures. It seems that despite the anticipation of revenue influx from high oil prices, the currency remains adrift in uncertainty. This confusion has been amplified by a lack of definitive action from the regulatory authorities, leaving market participants and traders grappling for stability.

Russian equities, despite the overall economic turmoil, have managed to demonstrate resilience. The dollar-denominated RTS index exhibited a 0.2% uptick, settling at 1,002.7 points. Meanwhile, the rouble-based MOEX Russian index surged by 1.6%, reaching 3,205.4 points. This rise positions the index near a pre-invasion high, which is a testament to the market’s faith in the nation’s recovery potential.

Sinara Investment Bank weighed in on the situation, pointing out the intriguing correlation between the weakening USD/RUB rate and the growing interest of retail investors in equities as a means of safeguarding their depreciating rouble savings. This sentiment echoes a growing trend of seeking alternative avenues for investment and protection against currency depreciation.

As the rouble’s weakening persists, the financial world remains on edge, closely monitoring the currency’s trajectory. The interplay of factors such as foreign exchange demand, trade imbalances, and monetary policy debates paints a complex picture of the challenges Russia’s monetary authorities must navigate. For now, the rouble’s future remains uncertain, caught in a delicate balance between economic recovery and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the rouble’s recent plunge to a 17-month low against the US dollar underscores the currency’s ongoing struggle. The confluence of strong foreign exchange demand, trade imbalances, and discord within Russia’s monetary authorities has created a volatile environment. Despite moments of resilience, the rouble’s vulnerability to global economic shifts remains evident. As Russia seeks to stabilize its currency and navigate a turbulent geopolitical landscape, the eyes of the financial world remain fixed on the rouble’s path forward.

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