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Soaring inflation raises the prospect of a worsening global crisis.

  • The US Federal Reserve and other major world central banks described the initial inflation rise as transitory and seen as a temporary phenomenon, primarily caused by the fast growth of the economies post-pandemic, which was expected to peak in early 2022 and then begin to ease. It appears that the central bankers miscalculated, as price growth accelerated beyond all expectations, driven by a variety of factors that, when combined, pushed inflation to multi-decade or record highs, with no signs of abating so far. After being anaemic for several years, despite numerous attempts by central banks to revitalise it and push it out of the zone well below targets, price growth has suddenly exploded in the last few months.
  • Many economists believe that rising inflation was the result of a longer-term process, pointing to massive printing of money that was pumped into economies during the pandemic slowdown to keep them afloat and maintain ultra-low interest rates. This relates to one of the definitions of inflation, which states that a large increase in the total amount that circulates in the economy leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine triggered a chain reaction that increased energy and commodity prices, as a result of the Western world’s decision to reduce and eventually ban imports of crude oil, natural gas, coal, and a variety of other raw materials.
  • Threats that the European Union’s economy, which is heavily reliant on Russian energy and has already slowed significantly, could face catastrophic consequences if imports from Russia ceased triggered a domino effect that not only impacted western economies but also caused global economic destabilisation. 
  • Significantly higher energy and raw material prices contributed to the second cause of rising inflation – cost-push inflation, while the strong rise in prices, accompanied by persistent supply disruptions, resulted in a shortage of products, pushing their prices higher and pointing to the third cause of rising inflation – demand-pull inflation.
  • The enormous rise in natural gas prices from around $400 a year ago to over $3000 in March and currently standing at around $1000, with expectations that gas prices could surge to $3500 per thousand cubic metres in the winter, poses a serious threat to developed economies such as the European Union and the United Kingdom. • At the same time, crude oil prices rose above $100 per barrel after dropping to zero during the pandemic, despite the global supposition that the global supposition This triggered an increase in food prices, electricity, and many other essential items, contributing to an enormous increase in the cost of living, putting additional pressure on households and businesses.
  • Current inflation in the United States is 8.3 percent, just below the 40-year high of 8.5 percent reached in March, raising hopes that inflation in the US has peaked. However, economists are not overly optimistic, as so-called core inflation, closely monitored by the US central bank and used as a gauge for real inflation, rose last month, raising expectations that the Fed will take a more aggressive stance at its next policy meeting in June. 
  • The Federal Reserve of the United States has already raised interest rates twice, beginning with a 0.25 percent increase in March and a 0.5 percent increase in May, and has signalled multiple rate hikes of 50 basis points in the coming months, confirming their commitment to restoring price stability.
  • Inflation in the United Kingdom reached 9% in April, the highest level in four decades, owing primarily to rising energy prices. 
  • British inflation, which is currently the highest in Europe’s five largest economies but also in the Group of Seven countries, adds to the already high cost of living, which is in its deepest crisis since 1950′. 
  • Rising inflation has put pressure on UK households and the economy, with current government assistance insufficient to significantly improve the situation.
  • The Bank of England has already raised interest rates four times since December, the fastest rate increase in 25 years, bringing its benchmark rate to 1%, the highest since 2009. 
  • By tightening monetary policy, the central bank hopes to bring soaring inflation under control.
  • Inflation in the European Union reached a record high of 7.5 percent last month, boosted by rising energy and food prices, prompting policymakers to act more quickly. The European Central Bank said it will likely end its bond purchases in July and may begin raising interest rates in the third quarter, as the ECB maintains its zero-rate policy established during the pandemic crisis. Economists predict three to four hikes this year, hoping that tightening policy will bring raging inflation under control, which is currently nearly four times the central bank’s target
  • The worsening economic situation as a result of soaring inflation poses a significant risk that many developed economies will enter recession in the coming months, with most central banks already downgrading their growth forecasts for the rest of 2022 and early 2023.

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