THE IMPACT OF CENTRAL BANKS ON THE FOREX MARKET
In order to promote long-term economic development and contribute to the general stability of the financial system, central banks are primarily responsible for managing inflation. When required, central banks will act in the financial markets in accordance with the established “Monetary Policy Framework.” Since they want to profit from the ensuing currency swings, forex traders closely watch and anticipate the adoption of such policies.
The major central banks’ functions and the ways in which their policies impact the world’s FX market are the main topics of this essay.
CENTRAL BANKS: WHAT ARE THEY?
Central banks are autonomous organizations that are used by countries all over the globe to help manage their commercial banking sector, determine central bank interest rates, and advance financial stability throughout the nation.
The following are some strategies used by central banks to interfere in the financial market:
- Open market operations (OMO): Open market operations are the processes by which governments purchase and sell government securities (bonds) on the open market in order to increase or decrease the quantity of money in the banking system.
- The Central Bank Rate: The monetary policy committee determines the central bank rate, also known as the discount rate or federal funds rate, with the goal of raising or lowering economic activity. Although it may seem counterintuitive, central banks try to keep inflation at a modest level since it is a direct result of an overheated economy.
Investor trust is raised when a central bank serves as the lender of last resort. Investors are more confident that governments will honor their debt commitments, which helps to reduce the cost of borrowing money for the government.
IMPORTANT CENTRAL BANKS
- Federal Reserve Bank (United States)
According to the 2016 Triennial Central Bank Survey, “The Fed” is in charge of the currency that is exchanged the most globally. The Fed’s decisions affect not just the US dollar but also other currencies, which is why people pay close attention to what it does. The Fed aims for stable prices, the highest level of sustainably growing employment, and moderate long-term interest rates.
- European Central Bank (European Union)
Being the central bank for every member state of the European Union makes the European Central Bank (ECB) unique. Securing the value of the Euro and preserving price stability are priorities for the ECB. Since the Euro is the second most widely used currency worldwide, forex traders pay careful attention to it.
- The Bank of England
As the UK’s central bank, the Bank of England has two goals: monetary stability and financial stability. When it comes to overseeing the financial sector, the UK uses a Twin Peaks model, with the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as one “peak” and the Prudential Regulating Authority as the other (PRA). By mandating that these companies maintain sufficient capital and implement proper risk controls, the Bank of England prudentially supervises the financial services industry.
- The Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan has placed a high priority on maintaining stable prices and reliable payment and settlement systems. In a bold effort to jump-start the economy, the Bank of Japan has kept interest rates at or below zero (negative interest rates). Negative interest rates make it possible for people to receive paid to borrow money, but investors are less likely to deposit money since doing so would result in a fee.
RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE CENTRAL BANK
The purpose of central banks’ establishment is to carry out a mandate in the public interest. Despite the fact that duties may vary by nation, the following are the principal ones:
1) Achieve and maintain price stability: The job of central banks is to preserve the value of their nation’s currency. This is accomplished by keeping the economy’s inflation rate moderate.
2) Encouraging the stability of the financial system: To lower systemic risk in the financial sector, central banks subject commercial banks to a series of stress tests.
3) Promoting balanced and sustainable economic growth: There are generally two basic ways for a nation to boost its economy. These are accomplished by monetary policy or fiscal policy (government expenditure) (central bank intervention). Central banks may still start monetary policy to try to boost the economy even after governments have spent all of their money.
4) Monitoring and controlling financial institutions: In the public’s best interest, central banks have the responsibility of monitoring and controlling commercial banks.
5) Reduce unemployment: In addition to promoting price stability and sustained economic expansion, central banks could be motivated to reduce unemployment. This is one of the Federal Reserve’s objectives.
INTEREST RATES AND CENTRAL BANKS
All other interest rates that people encounter on personal loans, mortgages, credit cards, and other types of loans are derived from the base rate established by central banks. The interest rate levied by the central bank to commercial banks seeking overnight credit is known as the central bank interest rate.
The next graph illustrates this impact of central bank interest rates by showing how commercial banks charge customers a higher rate than the one they may negotiate with the central bank.
A contemporary kind of banking known as fractional reserve banking requires commercial banks to borrow money from the central bank. Banks take deposits and issue loans, so they must make sure there is enough money on hand to cover daily withdrawals while lending the remaining funds from depositors to companies and other investors who need cash. Through this strategy, the bank makes money by charging a higher interest rate on loans while giving depositors lesser rates.
If a bank falls short of the reserve requirement, it may borrow money from the central bank at the overnight rate, which is based on the annual central bank interest rate. Central banks will specify the precise proportion of depositor funds (reserve) that banks must hold aside.
Since central bank rates may significantly affect the currency market, FX traders regularly follow them. Since institutions and investors often monitor yields (interest rates), changes in these rates will cause traders to direct capital toward nations with higher interest rates.
THE FOREX MARKET AND CENTRAL BANKS
Forex traders often analyze the central bank chairman’s rhetoric to determine if the central bank is going to raise or lower interest rates. Hawkish and Dovish terms relate to language that is taken to imply a rise or drop in rates. Known as “ahead guidance,” these imperceptible cues have the power to influence the FX market.
Traders who think the central bank is poised to start raising interest rates will put a long bet in that currency’s favor, while those who believe the central bank will take a dovish position would attempt to short the currency.