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Gold

• Gold is down 0.3 percent on the day to $1,893.  
• Gold has been one of the bigger beneficiaries in this whole Russia-Ukraine episode, but as risk fortunes start to turn, we’re not seeing a material unwind in gold just yet. However, markets frequently act first and then work out the details later.
• The current situation is that Russia came out to get what they wanted, but it remains to be seen whether Putin wants to push for more. That could be the true motivation, but for the time being, markets are turning the other cheek. And, with’slap on the wrist’ sanctions, there are no major economic consequences to be concerned about.
• As a result, we may see a de-escalation from here, or Russia may throw a curveball and spark more conflict.
• Given how the market is currently reacting, the former appears to be what investors are leaning towards.
• Price encountered resistance above $1,900 from the May to June highs last year, and the technical level is holding. This is a good level for sellers to look for gold to retrace gains as Russia-Ukraine tensions ease. Fundamentally, gold is dealing with the prospect of rising rates as central banks around the world continue to tighten policy in the coming months.
• That’s not exactly a promising outlook, as evidenced by gold’s struggles in January, which has historically been the best month for the yellow metal.

AUD/JPY

• The AUD/JPY pair appears to be on the verge of a breakout leg as risk fortunes improve.
• The AUD/JPY currency pair is up 0.5 percent on the day, trading at 83.57.
• So far, the risk mood is improving, and the aussie and kiwi, which have been particularly resilient in the last two weeks, are taking full advantage. The kiwi was boosted earlier by a more hawkish RBNZ, but it is now the best performing major currency on the day.
• However, the Australian dollar is benefiting from this as well, climbing to new highs in European trading.
• The AUD/USD pair is up 0.6 percent to 0.7262, while the AUD/JPY pair is up 0.5 percent to 83.57 and looking for a breakout leg to the upside.
• Over the last two weeks, the forex pair has been limited by key daily trendline resistance, but now the market is on the verge of a potential breakout, which could lead to much stronger gains in the sessions ahead.
• The next major resistance level will be the 10 February high of 83.99, but this will be tempered by the possibility of a more hawkish RBA tilt in the long run.

Switzerland

·      Switzerland Credit Suisse investor sentiment in February 9.0 vs. 9.5 previously.

·      Credit Suisse and the CFA Society Switzerland have released the most recent data. Prior to 9.5.

·      The current conditions index is seen holding up somewhat at around +44.6 from +50.0 in January, despite a slight drop in the reading. This suggests that financial analysts see the current economic situation as relatively positive, though the report suggests that they are becoming more pessimistic about the equity market.