Tag: forex

4 Global Market Updates- 25 November, 2022

In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

AUD/USD eases off a one-week high, and any decline is restricted given a lower US dollar.

After retesting the high of November 15–16 in the 0.6780s, the AUD/USD pair fails to build on its gains over the previous three trading sessions and falls from a one-week high reached earlier this Friday. The pair is trading around the mid-0.6700s and has been doing so during the early European session. However, any further decline is unlikely.

The current uptick in market optimism is restrained by concerns about the deteriorating COVID-19 situation in China, which is terrible news for the risk-averse Australian dollar. China implemented stringent restrictions in several important cities after a record-high increase in daily COVID-19 cases. As a result, worries of a future downturn in economic activity increase, and investors’ interest in assets seen as higher risk decreases.

However, the underlying pessimistic attitude against the US Dollar keeps the downside for the AUD/USD pair cushioned, at least temporarily. According to the minutes of the FOMC’s November meeting, which were made public on Wednesday, most decision-makers believed that a rate rise would soon be appropriate. As a result, the current decrease in US Treasury bond rates is extended, further weakening the US dollar.

NZD/USD: Higher interest rates may not be enough to drive the Kiwi – ANZ

With higher rates as support, the NZD/USD has overcome the crucial 0.6235 resistance level and now seems stable. However, aggressive Fed language should be avoided, warn ANZ Bank analysts.

Uncertainty still exists. “We do believe that higher interest rates and the RBNZ’s hawkish posture are, on balance, good for the Kiwi. However, newspapers are awash with recession talk, which of course carries the danger that unfavorable sentiment begins to feed on itself.”

The major worldwide question is how the USD would react to the possibility of the Fed pausing the pace of rises but perhaps raising the terminal rate. Does it encourage USD weakness or support it? Therefore, ambiguity persists.

GBP/USD is steady around the 1.2100 level, close below Thursday’s multi-month high.

The GBP/USD pair has consolidated this week’s strong climb up to the highest level since August 12 and is expected to fluctuate in a tight zone into the early European session on Friday. The pair is trading at the round number of 1.2100 and is still very close to a technical indicator known as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The US Dollar continues to be a headwind for the GBP/USD pair as it fails to establish real momentum and hovers just above the monthly low. The FOMC meeting minutes dovish judgment, made public on Wednesday, keeps US Treasury bonds’ rates down. The safe-haven greenback is seen to be under attack as a result of this and an overall upbeat atmosphere in the equities markets.

On the other side, the British pound is supported by the recent decrease in UK government bond yields. As a result of the UK’s financial situation improving, the Bank of England should be able to keep hiking borrowing prices to control inflation. Combining the aforementioned fundamental elements increases the likelihood that the GBP/USD pair will continue to appreciate shortly.

Nevertheless, given the UK’s dismal economic outlook, traders could be reluctant to make bold, optimistic wagers. Recall that the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted a 1.4% decline in the UK GDP in 2019 compared to a rise of 1.8% predicted in March. This might limit gains for the GBP/USD pair due to lower trading volumes.

In the absence of pertinent market-moving data announcements from the UK, spot prices are on course to post increases for the third consecutive week. The Prelim Q3 GDP report, Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator), and the much-awaited monthly employment numbers, often referred to as NFP—all of which will be released next week—will now take front stage in the market.

USD/JPY finds support at 138.50 as the US Dollar rebounds, and Tokyo inflation rises.

In the early European session, the USD/JPY pair creates a cushion around the critical support level of 138.50. The USD/JPY pair has also increased a little due to signs of improvement in the USD Index (DXY). The US Dollar has made up all of its morning losses and is anticipated to scare off the following risk-on solid profile. The bias is still in favor of risky assets, however.

The S&P500 futures market is acting like investors are just starting to trade again following Thanksgiving Day’s holiday session. The 10-year US Treasury bond returns have decreased even further, to 3.65%, as the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would maintain its December monetary policy meeting rate rise of 75 basis points (bps) has drastically decreased.

If the Fed decided to cut down the rate at which it raised interest rates, investors would choose to put their money in US government bonds. The likelihood of an interest rate increase slowing down is increasing as inflationary pressures have begun to wane and financial dangers need caution. As the inflation rate is still significantly below the desired rate of 2%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is anticipated to keep interest rates from falling and may switch to a 50 basis point rate rise structure.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo has increased to 3.8% from the consensus estimate of 3.6% on the Japanese currency front. While core CPI has increased to 2.5% from the expected 2.1%, According to Bloomberg, Tokyo’s inflation has exceeded expectations to reach its most robust rate since 1982. This acceleration signals that following months of currency weakening and high energy prices, the statewide price increase will also accelerate in November.

Please click here for the Market News Updates from 24 November, 2022.

November 25, 2022
The Psychology of Forex Market Speculation
Trading involves forex speculation, which is the name of the game. Even if there is no assurance of success, every trader eventually needs to click “buy” or “sell” and commit to a position based on their research. Unfortunately for traders, the market may have a different perspective on the market, which may cause them to take a minute to reflect seriously.

This article attempts to address some of those difficult topics by delving into the following:
- What exactly does speculation in foreign exchange mean?
- What happens if everything goes wrong?
- Top 4 suggestions for speculating like a pro trader.
WHAT IS FOREX MARKET SPECULATION?

Buying and selling currencies on the foreign exchange market for profit is speculation. Because no one can predict with confidence whether the market will move up or down, it is known as speculation. Before entering a transaction, traders evaluate the probability of both possible outcomes.

WHAT HAPPENS IF EVERYTHING GOES WRONG?

You have many tools necessary to succeed if you’ve built a trading strategy focused on forex speculation and mastered the market’s fundamentals. And if that success doesn’t materialize, you could start to wonder a lot.

“Am I using the best trading strategy?” “Do I really understand what I’m doing?”

These inquiries or concerns are not original. Most traders have acquired the skills to overcome these notions at some point. Let’s respond to these inquiries directly:

1) Do I have the best trading strategy?

Market circumstances alter with time, but many traders must be aware of this at the beginning. As a currency speculator, you may spend weeks studying a particular market that aligns with your current approach, but this is likely to change, and when it does, it may seem like something needs to go your way.

Comparing EUR/USD in 2017 to the same currency pair in the first half of 2019 provides a fantastic illustration of this.

In 2017, the EUR/USD currency pair spent most of the year in full advance. Any sane trader would want to employ a strategy like this after backtesting trend trading tactics, which would naturally provide favorable outcomes.

The EUR/USD‘s movement over the first half of 2019 paints a drastically different image, making things challenging for novice trend traders. This idea is shown by the red 200-day moving average, which repeatedly crosses prices while failing to provide a distinct signal.

Investing some time to determine whether market circumstances have altered is a good idea for traders. It is likely that the trading method is effective but that the market no longer has the qualities that first attracted you to it.

2) Am I Doing This Right?

The expertise and readiness of each trader will determine the solution to this challenging issue. Since this issue cannot be addressed, the best course is to examine what others have done incorrectly, draw lessons from it, and steer clear of similar trading errors.

4 tips for successful trading speculation that can help you get back on track

1) Don’t Let risk alter your actions

The impression of losses presents traders with their toughest psychological challenge (and the concept of losing). For traders, the disappointment of realizing a loss when a trade is closed out surpasses the joy of realizing a profit when a deal is realized.

Top traders prioritize using excellent risk management. Without utilizing stops, traders may win two-thirds of their trades and still burn out their money. This has the inevitable result that traders hold onto losing positions while taking profits as soon as a position becomes profitable. The wins are outweighed by the losses, which is unacceptable.

Implementing a trailing stop or manually moving your current stop when the market advances in your favor is one technique to control your emotions. In this manner, traders may unwind with the knowledge that they are breaking even and that any subsequent movement in your favor is pure profit.

Know the amount of risk you are willing to accept before making a transaction, and make sure the risk-to-reward ratio is at least 1:1.

2) Always Approach the Charts with a Positive Attitude

In this game of currency speculation, you will unavoidably lose money. Thus it’s crucial to prevent such losses from affecting your outlook.

It may be highly depressing for traders to suffer often the disappointment of getting stopped. As a consequence, they shortchange their analysis or doubt their strategy. Never a good thing.

The secret to maintaining a good speculation while trading is to see losses as a necessary part of conducting business, similar to how a company owner views costs. Because if you understand how to lose appropriately and maintain those losses in perspective of the wider picture, you will have tackled the most important components of trading psychology.

3) Strike a balance between greed and terror.

These two motivations may affect many aspects of our life, not only trade. Both fear and greed may be pretty harmful while trading since they impair judgment and cause you to make poor choices.

When in a losing position, most people get greedy and are prepared to hang on if the price can rise to where it was before. And the majority of people start to feel afraid when they are winning.

When they are shown to be accurate, traders should go to the opposite of those motivations and become greedy. If you’re worried that your original risk is still exposed, the breakeven stop might assist.

4) Avoid letting your confidence overpower you.

It’s natural for people to become more confident in their dealings after a run of wins, which may be advantageous.

However, if a trader enters the realm of “overconfidence,” hazardous behaviors may creep into their methodology. It is none more detrimental than the inclination to disregard their trading guidelines only because they believe it would be profitable.

As a result, traders must always strive to maintain a careful balance between being worried or afraid and being overconfident while market speculations.
November 24, 2022
NZD/USD bulls eye 0.6300 as Fed expects no more rate rises

NZD/USD has cleared the significant threshold of 0.6250 during a risk-on solid trend. Federal Reserve officials favor the interest rate rise slowing regime to lower financial risks. The New Zealand Reserve Bank expects the interest rate to peak at 5.5 percent. RBNZ-Fed policy divergence has increased, and NZD/USD seeks to break through the round-level resistance of 0.6300.

After overcoming the crucial barrier of 0.6250 during the Asian session, NZD/USD is moving upward intensely. The Kiwi Dollar has significantly increased in popularity as market confidence soars. NZD has renewed its three-month high at 0.6270 and has kept up its two-day winning run. In the absence of any indications that the bullish market attitude would weaken, the major is vulnerable to touching the round-level resistance of 0.6300.

Demand for the US Dollar has decreased due to a significant increase in investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has given up its 106.00 cushions and is plummeting like a house of cards. The strong US dollar wants to hit its three-month low at 105.34. S&P500 futures are showing gains ahead of the US holiday associated with Thanksgiving Day. Investors’ lack of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s fifth 75 basis point (bps) rate rise period has caused the 10-year US Treasury rates to fall below 3.69%. (Fed).

The Federal Reserve’s officials advocated for slowing the rate of interest rate increases.

The October inflation data was good, which helped the Federal Reserve’s officials feel better. Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, and his allies are working nonstop to stabilize prices. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes show that the Federal Reserve is pleased with a drop in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). Most Federal Reserve officials have advocated for a reduction in an interest rate increase to decrease financial risks and track the development of past efforts in the form of restrictive policy measures.

The US dollar has significantly decreased as a consequence of this. For the monetary policy meeting in December, Fed chair Jerome Powell will switch to a half-percent rate increase extent due to the persistence of inflation in the US economy.

Positive US orders for durable goods failed to support the US dollar.
Market players consistently wait for signs that show household demand before projecting Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. In October, consumer demand for durable goods increased by 1% in the United States, above expectations and the previous report of 0.4%. This suggests that consumer demand is strong and that core CPI may see future stagnation. This might stop the Federal Reserve’s effort to decrease interest rates.

It is important to note that American families manage their costs with less income. Rising interest rates will increase the amount of interest that must be paid on purchases of durable items, which might accelerate the cost of delinquency for credit providers.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand anticipates a 5.5% interest rate peak. Governor Adrian Orr of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the OCR by 75 basis points on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy divergence have deepened.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand abandoned its 50 basis point rate hike regime in favor of a larger rate increase to strengthen its battle against an unprecedented rise in inflation. The RBNZ increased its OCR earlier by 50 bps five times in a row. Since the price pressure in the New Zealand economy has not yet shown symptoms of tiredness and a peak, the tightening of monetary policy will continue to quicken. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also offered a 5.5% interest rate peak.

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate forecasts and widened Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy divergence are anticipated to boost the Kiwi Dollar, even more, pushing the NZD/USD exchange closer to 0.6300.

Technical forecast for NZD/USD

Daily, NZD/USD is moving toward the horizontal resistance set from the high on August 12. The asset is comfortably above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6103 (located between the peak on August 12 at 0.6469 and the low on October 13 at 0.5560). For the first time in the previous seven months, NZD/USD has crossed the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6233.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is now swinging in a bullish area of 60.00-80.00, which suggests that the Kiwi Dollar has risen further.

November 24, 2022
4 Global Market Updates- 24 November, 2022

In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/TRY and USD/CHF.

EUR/USD may fluctuate slightly at 1.03, according to Commerzbank

Due to weak holiday activity, the US dollar is still under pressure. Commerzbank economists anticipate that the EUR/USD pair will remain close to the 1.03 level.

It will become dull, so sit back and relax. “No data is expected for release in the US owing to the Thanksgiving holiday. However, we are not expected to see something new from the eurozone either.

“Until the weekend, I anticipate calm Dollar markets with minor swings in the EUR/USD rate around the 1.03 level. Therefore, let’s sit and unwind, as it can become monotonous.

Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, the USD/JPY is expected to fall below 139.00.

During the first hour of Thursday’s European session, USD/JPY maintains its downward position close to the weekly low of 138.60. By doing so, the Yen pair records a three-day losing run despite disregarding mixed figures from Tokyo and general US Dollar weakness.

In November, Japan’s industrial activity decreased at its quickest rate in two years, while the services sector’s activity also decreased. Despite this, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan fell to 49.4 from 50.7 in the previous edition and expectations. Additionally, the Services equivalent flashed a value of 50.00 as opposed to the 53.1 predicted and 53.2 recorded before.

In addition, Japan’s Coincident Index increased from 101.8 to 101.4, above market estimates of 101.1, while the Leading Economic Index came in at 97.5, behind projections of 97.4 and previous readings of 101.30.

However, lessening concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) sudden rate rises, particularly in light of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes from the previous day, maintains the USD/JPY optimistic. The prospects for Chinese government stimulus, a reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and hopes for a speedy economic recovery from the unfortunate COVID-19-led economic circumstances are all on the same page.

USD/TRY follows negative options market indications ahead of the CBRT Interest Rate Decision.

As traders prepare for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s Interest Rate Decision, USD/TRY is under pressure at 18.60, down for the third day (CBRT).

However, despite high inflation, the Turkish central bank is expected to continue to differ from its international peers. Market consensus points to a third straight rate drop to 9.0% from the current level of 10.5%.

The pair’s values are also affected by the negative signals from the options market in addition to the pre-CBRT consolidation.

The one-month risk reversal (RR), a measure of the disparity between call and put options, has fallen as low as the -0.030 level. The greatest loss since late August was recorded last week, although the weekly RR prints a +0.050 number to consolidate it.

Turkey’s November manufacturing confidence and capacity utilization numbers may be immediate triggers.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: An oversold RSI might test bears at the 0.9370-55 support zone.

Sellers applaud the third straight day of declines as USD/CHF accepts offers to retest the weekly low at 0.9390 on Thursday.

This continues the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair’s Tuesday U-turn from 0.9600 and the previous day’s damaging breach of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from January to November. The negative bias, however, is strengthened by the bearish MACD indications.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), now at 14, indicates practically oversold circumstances and suggests that the USD/CHF pair has little further to fall.

Consequently, the bears focus their attention mainly in the vicinity of 0.9370-55, which includes lows seen in August and so far in November.

The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.9310 and the 0.9300 round figure might function as additional downside filters to test the pair further falls if the USD/CHF bears manage to break through the 0.9355 support.

Please click here for the Market News Updates from 23 November, 2022.

November 24, 2022
What Are Durable Goods Orders and How Do They Affect Financial Markets?
Market players and traders often undervalue durable goods orders. Still, this article seeks to highlight the significance of this economic data print by going through its definitions, fundamental economic principles, and effects on the trading of financial markets.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: WHAT ARE THEY?

Let’s first examine what constitutes a durable good. Products and objects that are long-lasting and hard-wearing are considered durable goods. This indicates that orders for these items can be placed infrequently. The core retail sales figures directly benefit from durable goods, a component of the larger consumer goods category.

The U.S. Census Bureau measures new orders for durable goods from U.S. enterprises every month via a survey known as the “U.S. durable goods orders metric.” The two independent issues of the statistics release are the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers’ shipments, inventory, and orders.

DURABLE GOODS ORDER EXAMPLES

Durable goods, which are expensive commodities that endure for more than three years, include things like:
- Equipment
- Appliances
- Furniture
- Mobile homes
- Bicycles
- Automobiles
- Electronics
DEFINITION OF NON-DURABLE GOODS ORDER

Non-durable goods, in contrast to durable ones, have a shorter lifetime and a speedier manufacture and delivery schedule (less expensive). These things endure from a few minutes to three years and are used practically immediately before going bad. Examples of non-durable items include the following:
- Food
- Soap
- Drinks
- Detergents
- Cigarettes
- Pharmaceuticals
Non-durable products, commonly known as “soft goods,” have a lower correlation with GDP than durable goods (pro-cyclical), partly because households may delay orders for durable items if income is limited, which causes manufacturers to postpone the acquisition of capital goods.

HOW CAN DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DATA BE USED IN TRADING?

Because durable products require time to create and deliver, orders for them may be used as a “forward guidance” tool for the economy’s future. Orders for durable goods serve as a gauge of a nation’s economic health. For instance, if purchasers or investors are concerned about the U.S. economy‘s capacity, they could turn elsewhere for possibilities, hurting the data on durable goods orders. The following graphic illustrates how a lower print on the report can limit future gains for the U.S. dollar:

DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) VS US ORDERS FOR DURABLE GOODS (2017 -2022)

As seen in the cases above, U.S. durable goods orders also follow related industries from an equity standpoint. The following graphic compares the share prices of Ford and Boeing, two prominent American producers of durable goods, with the data on U.S. durable goods orders (green).

Boeing and Ford Motor Company vs. U.S. Durable Goods Orders (2017 -2022

ARE ORDERS FOR DURABLE GOODS A LEADING INDICATOR?

The following DXY data shows that there has been a strong positive connection between the USD and durable goods orders in recent years. Still, it’s crucial to remember that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. This being the case, durable goods orders may be seen or categorized as a leading indication due to their physical disposition as a forward-looking metric. Orders for durable products and a look at the whole supply chain may be used to determine how optimistic the economy is. A decreased durable goods orders number might reveal any supply chain interruptions and, from a trade standpoint, could draw attention to a previously unnoticed problem area.

A summary of DURABLE GOODS ORDERS

Among the many important economic data indicators that traders use to infer the state of the U.S. economy, orders for durable goods are crucial.
November 23, 2022
GBP/USD hovers barely below mid-1.1900s ahead of US data/FOMC minutes.

GBP/USD rises for the second day and reaches a new weekly high. Bets on the Fed raising rates less aggressively weigh on the USD and strengthen the pair. The GBP is supported by better-than-expected UK PMI, which also supports the upward trend.
Ahead of the crucial FOMC minutes, investors are now looking to US macro data for some dynamism.

For the second straight day on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair builds on the previous day’s upward movement and finds some follow-through strength. The pair retains a buy tone through the early North American session and is now trading close to the weekly high, just below the mid-1.1900s.

The US Dollar bulls are on the defensive due to several issues, which is a positive for the GBP/USD pair. Investors have been pricing a higher likelihood of a modest 50 bps lift-off in December as the US central bank seems to be slowing the pace of its rate-hiking cycle. The safe-haven Greenback continues to be pressured by this and an upbeat atmosphere in the equities markets.

On the other hand, the British pound receives support from speculations that the UK government may want to pursue a partnership with the EU in the Swiss manner. This follows speculation that the Bank of England may increase interest rates even more to control inflation. Further supporting the Sterling and driving the GBP/USD pair higher is the flash UK PMI data, which indicated that economic activity slowed less than anticipated in November.

In addition to the aforementioned underlying causes, the potential for specific short-term trade stops to be activated on further gains above the 1.1900 level gives current prices an extra boost. However, the UK economy’s gloomy outlook might limit further rises for the GBP/USD pair. Additionally, traders could hesitate from making risky wagers in favor of holding off until the FOMC minutes are published, which is scheduled to happen later during the US session.

The US economic calendar, which includes the publication of their flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales, may provide the GBP/USD pair some momentum. However, given that investors are awaiting new information on the Fed’s policy stance and the trajectory of future rate hikes, the market’s response to the US macro data is more likely to be modest. This will affect the USD price dynamics and decide the major’s short-term destiny.

November 23, 2022
4 Global Market Updates- 23 November, 2022

In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the AUD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/TRY.

AUD/USD faces more losses if it falls below 0.6570 – UOB

The 0.6530 level may be tested again if the 0.6570 barriers is passed, according to UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann and market strategist Quek Ser Leang.

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we maintained that the Australian dollar “may decline to 0.6570 before a comeback is expected.” Our hopes were dashed when the Australian dollar fluctuated quietly between 0.6601 and 0.6650. The price movements look to be stabilizing, and today’s range for the Australian dollar is anticipated to be between 0.6615 and 0.6675.

Next 1-3 weeks: “We maintain the same position as yesterday (22 Nov, spot at 0.6605), according to which the AUD is experiencing little downward pressure. But before a drop to 0.6530 is probable, AUD must breach and hold below 0.6570. On the plus side, a break of 0.6690 (a level that has remained a “strong resistance” level) would show that the slight downward pressure now present has subsided.

USD/JPY below mid-141.00s amid USD weakening, FOMC minutes in focus

The USD/JPY pair recovers from an intraday decline to levels below 141.00 and increases by more than 50 pips from the daily low. However, given the pervasive selling bias around the US Dollar, spot prices find it difficult to take advantage of the movement and meet with new supply close to the 141.50 level.

Investors are currently persuaded that the US central bank would moderate the pace of its policy tightening despite the recent hawkish remarks made by several Fed members. The market’s current pricing suggests a higher likelihood of a very modest 50 basis point rate increase at the FOMC’s next policy meeting in December. This has, in turn, been a significant driver of the recent dramatic decline in US Treasury bond rates and continues to weigh on the dollar.

But the Fed is still far from stopping its cycle of rate hikes, and it is anticipated to keep boosting borrowing prices to fight inflation. This should restrict the decline in US bond rates and support the dollar. The November FOMC meeting minutes, which are scheduled to be released later during the US session, will thus continue to be the market’s primary focus. The fluctuations of the USD price in the short term will be influenced by investors’ searches for hints regarding potential rate rises.

The safe-haven Japanese Yen may be challenged in the interim by a more dovish tone taken by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), combined with indications of stability in the equities markets, which may strengthen the USD/JPY pair. The BoJ has yet to show a desire to raise interest rates. Additionally, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reaffirmed last week that the central bank would continue its monetary easing to help the economy and steadily achieve its 2% inflation objective.

GBP/USD: UOB expects further range-bound trading.

According to Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Economist Lee Sue Ann of UOB Group, GBP/USD will likely trade in the 1.1680–1.1940 band over the next several weeks.

View for the next 24 hours: “We noted yesterday that the GBP “might revisit the 1.1780 level before a more durable bounce is probable.” GBP did not, however, touch 1.1780 as it bounced back from 1.1815. (high has been 1.1905). Despite the recovery, the rising trend has remained the same. Despite this, the GBP might somewhat increase, but additional growth is unlikely to overcome the significant barrier of around 1.1940. A breach of 1.1830 (a minor support level at 1.1860) would signal a decrease in the current slight upward pressure.

Within the next three weeks: “We don’t have anything to add to yesterday’s report” (22 Nov, spot at 1.1825). As said, the pound has entered a period of stabilization and will probably trade between 1.1680 and 1.1940 for the time being.

USD/TRY hovers at 18.60, with an emphasis on Fed Minutes.

During the second day of inactivity leading to Wednesday’s European session, USD/TRY oscillates between 18.60 and 65.

Before important US data and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair battles geopolitical and economic drivers.

According to Reuters, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkey would soon launch a military operation against extremists. After retaliatory attacks along the Syrian border intensified, the national was also cited in the press as indicating a potential ground offensive against a Kurdish group in Syria.

According to the most recent statistics flashing the day before, Turkish consumer confidence increased for the sixth consecutive month in November, reaching 76.6. Despite a persistent price increase, the mood indicator increased from a record low of 63.4 in June, according to Reuters. According to the news, “the overall economic condition expected over the next 12 months showed the highest gain in confidence, up 3.4% from a month earlier to stand at 80.5 points.”

Please click here for the Market News Updates from 22 November, 2022.

November 23, 2022

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