Tag: dollar

  • What are Pips and How do they work in Forex Trading?

    What are Pips and How do they work in Forex Trading?

    Introduction to PIPS

    The unit of measurement used by forex traders to describe the slightest change in value between two currencies is called a “PIP,” which stands for Point in Percentage. In a normal forex quotation, this is indicated as a change of one digit in the fourth decimal place.

    For example, if the price of EUR/USD changes from 1.1402 to 1.1403, this would be a one pip or ‘point’ shift.

    pips trading

    Example of a pip purchasing EUR/USD using the quotation

    pips trading

    However, not all currency rates are shown in this manner; a noteworthy example is the Japanese Yen. Continue reading for additional information on pip use in forex trading, including examples from a few key currency pairings.

    HOW DO I DETERMINE THE VALUE OF A PIP?

    One pip (0.0001) is multiplied by the appropriate lot/contract size to get the pip value. This involves 100,000 units of the basic currency for normal lots and 10,000 units for micro lots. For example, looking at EUR/USD, a one pip movement in a normal contract is equivalent to $10 (0.0001 x 100 000). (0.0001 x 100 000).

    Knowing how much one pip is worth allows forex traders to assign a monetary value to their take profit goals and stop loss levels. Traders may predict how the value of their trading account (equity) will change when the currency market changes rather than just analyzing fluctuations in pips.

    It’s crucial to remember that one pip will have a varied value for various currency combinations. This is because one pip’s value is always expressed in the quotation or variable currency, which varies while trading multiple currency pairings. The value of one pip will be shown in USD when trading EUR/USD and in JPY when trading GBP/JPY.

    Calculating the value of a pip: An example using EUR/USD pip values.

    Because each currency has a unique relative value, it is required to determine how much a pip is worth for each currency combination.

    Remember that you can only exchange certain sums of currency when you trade forex. The following table lists the parameters of the standard and micro contracts that the majority of brokers offer:

    TYPE OF CONTRACTCONTRACT SIZE (NO. OF UNITS OF THE BASE CURRENCY)
    Standard Lot100 000
    Mini Lot10 000

    The following formula is used to determine the value of one pip for the EUR/USD standard contract:

    Contract Size x One Pip = Pip Value

    Pip Value: 100000 × 0.0001

    Pip Value is $10

    For every pip that moves in your favor, you make $10, and for every pip that moves against you, you lose $10. By the same reasoning, a micro contract’s one pip movement corresponds to a $1 gain or loss (10,000 x 0.0001).

    You may want to do some practice calculations to help you comprehend pips and pip calculations even further.

    CONVERSIONS OF PIP VALUE

    Now, you would need to convert that $1 (the value of a pip for a 10k EUR/USD lot) into Great British Pounds (GBP) if your account is based in GBP. To do this, divide the $1 by the GBP/USD exchange rate in effect at the time of writing, which is 1.2863. My answer should be less than 1, as a Pound is worth more than a US dollar. 1 divided by 1.2863 is equal to 0.7774 Pounds. You now know that if you trade 10k lots of EUR/USD and make or lose one pip, your account will be based in pounds, and you will make or lose 0.7774 pounds.

    THE EXCEPTION – PIPS FOR USD/JPY

    Traders should know that a pip is now the second decimal rather than the fourth when trading major currencies versus the Japanese Yen. This is due to the Japanese Yen’s much lower value than the world’s leading currencies.

    If you look at the USD/JPY quotation below, the ask (buy) price for 1 USD might go as high as 107.99 Yen.

    pips trading

    A pip movement (the value of one pip) while trading the micro contracts (10k) and regular contracts (100k) in Japanese Yen will be JPY100 and JPY1000, respectively.

  • 4 Global Market Updates- 21 October, 2022

    4 Global Market Updates- 21 October, 2022

    In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CNH and AUD/USD.

    USD/JPY has risen to 151.00, a new 32-year high, as US bond rates rise.

    On the last day of the week, the USD/JPY pair is extending its well-established bullish trend and acquiring significant follow-through momentum. In the middle of the European session, buying interest increased, pushing spot prices to a 32-year high in the neighborhood of 151.00.

    Despite a significant difference in the monetary policy stances taken by the Bank of Japan and other significant central banks, the selling bias around the Japanese yen has not dissipated. This supports the rising USD/JPY pair and counteracts Japanese government intervention threats.

    Conversely, the US dollar rose to a new weekly high and continues to be strongly supported by aggressive Fed predictions. Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, issued a warning on Thursday, saying that the US central bank is actively working to slow the economy to confront persistently rising inflation.

    Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US government bond yield has reached its highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis due to growing expectations for a more aggressive tightening of policy by the Fed. This impacts the JPY as the US-Japan rate divergence further widens.

    EUR/USD hovers at 0.9770, with the dollar remaining strong.

    At the week’s close, the euro is under pressure, pushing the USD/EUR rate to the 0.9760 area.

    usd

    With more buying activity around the dollar, the EUR/USD presently seems to stabilize in the bottom half of the most recent range in the 0.9770/60 area. Meanwhile, the uninterrupted rise in US yields seems to support the buck’s upward movement.

    The 10-year bund rates surge to 2.50% for the first time since July 2011 on the German money market in a similar vein.

    Later in the evening, the only release on the domestic schedule will be the sophisticated Consumer Confidence indicator monitored by the European Commission. Before the release of the Monthly Budget Statement, NY Fed J.Williams is scheduled to give a speech according to the US calendar.

    Despite the dollar’s ongoing surge, the EUR/USD currently seems to be beginning to consolidate in the sub-0.9800 region.

    USD/CNH: A breach of 7.3000 is still likely – UOB

    According to Quek Ser Leang, a market strategist at UOB Group, and Lee Sue Ann, an economist there, further gains might result in USD/CNH shortly challenging the 7.3000 level.

    24-hour perspective: “We did not anticipate the USD’s abrupt decline to 7.2210 and the subsequent quick recovery from the low. The bias for today is upward, even though the comeback has not yet acquired significant speed. But it’s doubtful that 7.2800 will be broken clearly (the next resistance is at 7.3000). Support may be found in 7.2440, then 7.2240.

    Within three weeks, “We remain committed to yesterday’s position” (20 October, at 7.2650). As said, the upside risk is still there, and there is a considerable likelihood that the US Dollar will break beyond 7.3000. The USD’s strength that began one week ago would only be over if it broke below 7.2150 (a level that remains a “strong support” level from yesterday).

    AUD/USD: UOB anticipates further sidelined trading.

    According to UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann and markets strategist Quek Ser Leang, the AUD/USD is projected to trade between 0.6190 and 0.6390 shortly.

    usd

    View for the next 24 hours: “We said yesterday that the Australian dollar “might move lower but is not anticipated to breach the primary support around 0.6190. There is another support at 0.6220, we added. We did not anticipate such wild price swings as the AUD plummeted to 0.6229, rose to 0.6357, and then returned to settle at 0.6283 (+0.20%). The unpredictable movement has produced a mixed picture, and the projected range for the Australian dollar is between 0.6230 and 0.6330.

    Within the next three weeks: “Our most recent analysis from Tuesday (18 October, spot at 0.6295) remains valid. AUD is anticipated to consolidate and trade between 0.6390 and 0.6190 for the time being, as was indicated.

    Please click here for the Market News Updates from 20 October, 2022.

  • Technical Analysis of the British Pound: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP

    Technical Analysis of the British Pound: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP

    TALKING POINTS IN BRITISH POUND:

    • With this morning’s news of yet another leadership transition at the UK PM position, headlines continue to push the British Pound.
    • While the GBP/USD pair has recently shown various short-term trends, the longer-term price action has been consolidating inside the range formed in late September and early October. A significant long-term resistance level is being tested by GBP/JPY, while a longer-term look at EUR/GBP shows some potential.

    More unrest is making headlines in the UK as Liz Truss’ resignation as prime minister was announced this morning, marking yet another shift in leadership at No. 10. The price movement of the British Pound suggests that this wasn’t a major surprise. The GBP/USD exchange rate has so far seen a modest increase as a result of the news, but this is limited by the larger picture, which has mostly been one of consolidation since the GBP/USD crash in late September drew back into the 1.1500 regions of resistance.

    Since then, there have been several twists to consider, although they have mostly been confined to swings with shorter horizons. Following the test of the 1.1500 barrier, the price declined to find support around the earlier level at 1.0932. This resulted in a rebound into 1.1350, where bulls repeatedly attempted but failed to break through. In keeping with the consolidation pattern, it prompted another slide to support, which was at a higher low; this contributed to this morning’s rise in the strength of the leadership headline. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is still forming a symmetrical triangle.

    Daily GBP/USD Chart

    GBP
    Source: TradingView

    GBP/USD SHORTER-TERM

    The consolidation has, however, been accompanied by a series of fast oscillations. The rebound from this morning is seen at a well-known location of resistance-turned-support. This plot covers the range of 1.1180 to 1.1210, which is the same area that assisted in maintaining support after the previous week.

    However, it should be noted that as the price moves more into the symmetrical triangle, the magnitude of each swing has continued to shrink, which is typical for consolidation patterns. This will typically result in a break in one of the directions, but as is typical with symmetrical triangles, there isn’t always a clear bias that can be used to predict which way the formation will break.

    Yesterday, it seemed like bulls would try for a breakthrough, but the price immediately returned to the shape. The support grind this morning also stressed the formation’s base but without any apparent breakdowns.

    Shorter-term setups may benefit since they may wait for breakdowns of the 1.1350 resistance level or the 1.1180 support level before pushing directional trends in the pair.

    If the price breaks higher, it will likely retest yesterday’s high at 1.1440 before moving on to the longer-term zone between 1.1460 and 1.1500. Regarding the support level, a break of 1.1180 allows for a move to the next support area at 1.1112, following which the 1.1000–1.1025 region enters the picture.

    Four-Hour GBP/USD Chart

    GBP
    Source: TradingView

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY can be your pair if you’re searching for volatile trading. Immediately after the collapse-like movement in the pound sterling in late September, shortly after the pound/yen had surged down to a significant support region at two-year lows. The 149 level, which is more than 2,000 pips away from the current price, serves as that support down below it.

    Furthermore, the GBP/JPY exchange rate is now testing above a Fibonacci level that supported gains in April and June, resulting in sizeable pullbacks on each occasion. This is quite close to the pair’s most recent six-year high. On Monday, the price was pushed all the way up for a test of the 170.00 psychological level, which was then followed by a reversal. This zone was then first challenged.

    However, note how the retreat found support today, pushing up toward the same Fibonacci level at 168.06, suggesting that a further breakthrough challenge above 170.00 may be imminent.

    Daily Price Chart for GBP/JPY

    GBP
    Source: TradingView

    LONGER-TERM GBP/JPY

    This recent move has been highly extreme, following last month’s long-legged Doji, which has seen some brisk topside continuation through the first few weeks of October. The 170.00 level in GBP/JPY is significant, but perhaps more importantly, we can contextualize how extreme this recent move has been.

    As this current resistance zone held bulls in April and June and is now being traded through, it also emphasizes how the breakout has been a pattern that has been developing for the previous several months. This maintains the possibility of a topside breakout until we see a change at the Bank of Japan. But on that subject, caution is advised since the USD/JPY pair is now approaching the 150.00 mark, which raises concerns about how Japanese policymakers would approach the situation.

    However, similar to USD/JPY, there may still be bullish motivation if there is another intervention like the one we saw on 9/22 without any changes to policy, given the positive carry on the long side of the pair.

    Monthly Price Chart for GBP/JPY

    GBP
    Source: TradingView

    EUR/GBP

    Recent headlines from the UK have received much attention, but is Europe truly in a better position? Even if the current leadership crisis surrounding the PM position is somewhat atypical, the economic environment in the Eurozone at the moment suggests that a similarly tricky path is in front of us.

    Therefore, it was a bit of a surprise to me, at least, that the late-September dynamics would cause the EUR/GBP to spike sharply. Although the price surged up for a test of two-year highs at.9270, price movement stayed within the previously established range, which has been in place for more than five years.

    Since then, there has been some settlement. Prices are now moving through the midpoint of that recent range, and longer-term support is just below that, at the.8371 level. Additionally, the following chart I’ll look at shows some potential near-term dynamics.

    Monthly EUR/GBP Chart

    GBP
    Source: TradingView

    A SHORTER-TERM EUR/GBP

    We can notice a recent sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart below. The response at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracements, which has been acting as a mid-line in this range, suggests that this morning may be another one of those lower-high tests.

    This draws attention to the following point of support, which is located around .8650, making room for support at .8585. Following that, the psychological level of .8500 and the Fibonacci level of .8371 enter the scene.

    Daily Price Chart for EUR/GBP

    GBP
    Source: TradingView
  • 4 Global Market Updates- 20 October, 2022

    4 Global Market Updates- 20 October, 2022

    In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the EUR/HUF, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/INR.

    EUR/HUF to fall below 410; EUR/PLN to fall below 4.78 – ING

    Because of decreasing gas costs, CEE is still on the rise. ING economists predict that EUR/HUF will drop back to sub-410 levels and EUR/PLN will once again drop below 4.78.

    In addition to decreasing gas costs, the area is seeing growing interest rate differentials. After the NBH emergency rate increase on Friday, we reached a new high in Hungary, and in Poland, we reached our highest levels since early September.

    If the European Commission accepts the proposed measures, “we anticipate favorable circumstances for CEE to continue to appreciate, supported by further drops in gas price, with EUR/USD above recent lows.”

    “We see a high potential for the Polish zloty to dip below 4.780 EUR/PLN and the Hungarian forint to recoup last week’s losses and return below 410 EUR/HUF.”

    GBP/JPY is still below 168.00, with the possibility of more Japanese intervention.

    On Thursday, the GBP/JPY cross drifted down for the third day and retreated even farther from the week’s previous peak, which was the cross’s highest level since February 2016. However, the cross manages to bounce back a few points from a three-day low and is presently trading in the 167.80-167.75 range.

    usd

    The British pound is still under pressure from the ongoing political unrest in the UK, which is seen to be a significant driver pushing the GBP/JPY cross lower. In fact, according to sources, after the latest tax reduction debacle, MPs plan to attempt to remove newly elected UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. The Bank of England may be forced to take a cautious approach to increasing interest rates due to this, despite stubbornly rising inflation, as concerns about a more profound economic crisis develop.

    On the other side, the Japanese yen finds strength in rumors that the government may step in once again to stop any further depreciation of the national currency. This favors the JPY’s relative safe-haven reputation and adds to the offered tone around the GBP/JPY cross, coupled with the cautious market attitude. Nevertheless, a significant difference in the stances taken on monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and other significant central banks continues to support market prices.

    EUR/USD reclaims some lost territory and re-targets 0.9800.

    The euro has a brief moment of happiness, which spurs the USD/EUR to rise from Thursday’s lows in the mid-0.9700s.

    Despite the muted downward trend in the dollar, EUR/USD can restore some purchasing interest and make up some of the ground lost after Wednesday’s sharp loss. It now has its sights set on the 0.9800 level.

    The German benchmark 10-year bund yields rose over 2.45% for the first time since August 2011, supporting the daily increase in spot rates and following the upward trend seen in their US counterparts throughout the curve.

    Despite the continuing knee-jerk in the dollar, the weekly corrective move in the EUR/USD seems to have found some good support at 0.9750 for the time being.

    Price movement around the euro is anticipated to closely track dollar trends, geopolitical tensions, and the Fed-ECB divergence in the interim. The latter is anticipated to continue to grow in light of recent findings from critical economic indicators, given the continued strength of the US economy.

    USD/INR: The following predictions are at 84.20 and 85.90, according to SocGen

    On Wednesday, the Indian rupee fell to a new record low against the US dollar at 83.21. The USD/INR may now aim for 84.20 and, subsequently, 85.90, according to Société Générale experts.

    usd

    “Weekly MACD is diverging away from the trigger line suggesting an overstretched advance and is near to the peak attained in 2020,” the author writes. “However, indications of a substantial reversal are not yet obvious.”

    The following estimates are at 84.20 and 85.90, respectively. To stop a short-term downtrend, the “Low made earlier this week at 82.00 must be resisted.”

    Please click here for the Market News Updates from 19 October, 2022.

  • Defensive Stocks: All You Need To Know About Them!

    Defensive Stocks: All You Need To Know About Them!

    Most individuals searching for a company to invest in are not particularly drawn to the phrase “defensive”. Yet, defensive stocks have shown to be crucial. Most individuals searching for a company to invest in are not particularly drawn to the phrase “defensive”, yet defensive stocks have shown to be crucial. Their greatest draw is that, since diversity lowers the correlation of assets held within a portfolio, they tend to protect investors during financial downturns or collapses.

    Defensive stocks, however, might appeal to traders with lower risk tolerances (i.e., those seeking less volatility in their investments) who only want to conserve their cash. They are not only helpful during recessions. Defensive stocks are defined in this article, along with their benefits and trading opportunities for investors and traders.

    If you’re new to stock trading, you may want to study stock market fundamentals to get an overview of the industry.

    DEFENSIVE STOCK: WHAT IS IT?

    Defensive stocks, commonly referred to as “non-cyclical stocks” or “safe haven stocks”, are made up of businesses whose revenues and dividend distributions are relatively stable regardless of the status of the broader economy. So, regardless of market circumstances, a defensive investment offers regular dividends and reliable profits. In general, this is because defensive stocks provide products or services that are seen as necessities, which means that demand for them is pretty steady.

    Although owning defensive companies does not guarantee poor returns, they have traditionally fared better during economic downturns than cyclical equities, which often follow the near-term momentum of the underlying economy.

    WHICH STOCKS ARE THE MOST DEFENSIVE

    Examples of defensive stocks may be found in the utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples stock market sectors and often display the traits listed below:

    • Strong balance sheets: Businesses with low debt-to-equity ratios are better able to make debt payments in challenging economic times.
    • Low beta: A stock’s “beta” gauges how closely it correlates with the overall market. A beta value near 1 indicates that the stock will perform similarly to the overall stock market. In contrast, a low beta value (close to 0) indicates a weaker correlation. Beta levels for defensive stocks are either close to zero or negative.
    • P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings ratio, sometimes known as the P/E ratio, is widely used for valuing stocks. Because defensive stocks often have a low price-to-earnings ratio, the P/E ratio may also aid in identifying them. Because investors do not need to pay a premium to purchase a company with significant potential for profit growth, firms with lower P/E ratios are sometimes a sign of defensive stocks. Instead, the low ratio justifies a lower price-to-earnings ratio since profit growth is constant or almost nil.

    EXAMPLE OF DEFENSIVE STOCK

    A significant recession or market collapse impacts the economy’s relationship with the stock market. Market collapses like the Global Financial Crisis in 2008/2009 lead to widespread layoffs, the forced liquidation of giant corporations, and government bailouts for industries that, if they fail, constitute a systemic danger.

    defensive stocks

    Investors try to protect themselves from assets that are losing value during economic volatility. Some of the poorest-performing assets often include cyclical equities or companies with a high correlation to the underlying economy. On the other hand, Defensive equities have often outperformed the whole equity market during market collapses because of their attractive non-cyclical characteristics.

    Comparing the performance of a defensive company to the performance of its larger equity market over the same period is an efficient technique to demonstrate the propensity of defensive companies to outperform during times of volatility.

    You should examine the relative performance of defensive stocks traded in the US about one of the key indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, or the NASDAQ 100. The S&P 500 during the financial crisis of 2008–2009 is seen in the graphic below. It is plain to observe that the US equities market fell precipitously. Due to its constituent parts, the S&P 500 has a significant weighting in cyclical firms, which suffered greatly during this period and caused the index to decline.

    defensive stocks

    Contrarily, the biopharmaceutical business Gilead Sciences could survive the financial crisis and emerge at a level close to where it had entered. Their stock price had a substantial rise, severe decline, and consolidation, leaving it in a far better position than other cyclical firms. Intuitively, this makes sense: customers will seek access to healthcare and prescription medications regardless of the economy. Because they are counter-cyclical, biopharmaceutical and healthcare equities are often conservative investments.

    defensive stocks

    It is important to remember that defensive equities do not always appreciate during recessions. Even though they may increase in value, keep steady, or even decrease, they are still valuable since they often beat the larger stock market during collapses.

    ADDITIONAL DEFENSIVE ASSETS

    Thankfully, defensive assets are available in the equities market and other markets like the bond, FX, and commodities markets.

    • Safe-haven currencies: The US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc are often considered safe-haven since they are adversely associated with equities during market collapses. Among other desired qualities, these defensive currencies often have current account surpluses, solid financial systems, relatively low government debt to GDP, sustained economic growth, and enough liquidity. It’s important to emphasize that safe haven currency won’t always exhibit all of these traits, but they will undoubtedly gain from them.
    • Defensive commodities: Gold is often regarded as a safe-haven commodity since there will always be a demand for the metal (such as for jewelry and specific industrial purposes) and because its supply is innately constrained to the quantity of gold that can be extracted from the earth’s crust. In contrast to currencies, this has the danger of depreciating the currency’s value via inflation since central banks may raise the money supply through monetary policy. Gold has had a specific role in monetary issues throughout the history of the human economy.
    • US Government Bonds: To move money from a riskier asset to a more stable one when equities decline, traders and investors often buy US Government Bonds. Due to the US economy’s strength and the US government’s stability, government bonds, typically low-yield investment vehicles guaranteed by the US government, are among the safest bonds in the world.
  • Silver price analysis: XAG/USD might challenge the $18.00 support

    Silver price analysis: XAG/USD might challenge the $18.00 support

    Silver continues its overnight drop back into the $19.00 neighborhood. The technical configuration promotes the possibility of more losses and is in the bears’ favor. To counteract the bearish bias, there must be a prolonged advance above the $19.00 level.

    On Wednesday, further selling pressure is applied to silver, which causes it to prolong the day before a slight decline from around the $19.00 level. Throughout the first part of the European session, Silver remained on the back foot; it is now dangerously close to the daily low, somewhere in the mid-$18.00 range.

    Technically speaking, the current recovery from a low reached last Friday, which was almost three weeks ago, risks rejection close to the 100-hour EMA. The oscillators on the 1-hour chart are again beginning to acquire negative traction, while oscillators on the daily chart remain in the bearish region. This strengthens the likelihood that the intraday depreciating trend will continue.

    silver

    A continuing decline towards testing crucial support, around the $18.00 level, is still a real possibility. A small amount of follow-through selling will be seen by bearish traders as a new trigger, pushing the Silver price down towards the YTD low, or about $17.55. Spot prices may decline to the next significant support close to $17.00.

    On the other hand, the 100-hour SMA, priced between $18.90 and $19.00, can operate as a temporary barrier. A sustained rise above might set off a rally for short-covering, lifting XAG/USD into the $19.70–$19.80 supply zone on the way to the psychological $20.00 level. The latter should serve as a turning point for bulls and, if cleared, should open the door for further gains.

    The next upward movement might push the XAG/USD higher over the $20.50 intermediate barrier and back towards regaining the $21.00 level, which is also the 200-day EMA.

    1-hour silver chart

    silver
  • 4 Global Market Updates- 19 October, 2022

    4 Global Market Updates- 19 October, 2022

    In this article, we have covered the highlights of global market news about the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CNH.

    The EUR/USD will challenge the 0.9540 lows during the next phase of dollar appreciation, according to ING.

    After the rise from 0.9700, the EUR/USD stabilized around the 0.98-0.99 range. According to ING analysts, the pair is expected to test the level of 0.9540 as the dollar continues to rise.

    “Dollar strength continues to be the biggest obstacle to the pair’s rebound, but the domestic situation is still far from promising to investors. The ZEW expectations index declined less than anticipated, while the present situation survey sharply declined to -72.2 in October. These levels were only last seen in 2020 and 2009.

    Although the drop in gas prices probably prevents a return to the 0.9540 lows, we believe the next wave of dollar appreciation will put a lot of pressure on that support.

    USD/JPY might sometimes trade as high as 160 – Nordea

    The inevitable decline of the Japanese yen has continued. According to Nordea economists, the USD/JPY exchange rate might rise as high as 160.

    USD

    Even with the Japanese government’s assistance, we sometimes see the USD/JPY trading as high as 160 due to the rate differentials’ ongoing deterioration.

    “A change in monetary policy from the Bank of Japan or a 180-degree turn from the other G10 central banks would halt the JPY from depreciating. When current BoJ Governor Kuroda retires in April 2023, the BoJ might change.

    USD/CAD: Loonie risks look to be somewhat weighted to the upside today – ING

    Before the Canadian inflation data is released, USD/CAD rises beyond 1.3750. ING economists anticipate modest gains for the loonie today.

    We nonetheless want to emphasize how Canada’s minimal exposure to the two main geopolitical and economic risk poles—Russia and China—puts it in a solid position to profit from any revival in risk sentiment (even if that may only happen to start in 1Q23). However, rising skepticism over the nature of global demand may further delay any significant loonie recovery.

    “Today’s release of the September CPI data is expected to show a reduction in headline inflation from 7.0% to 6.7%. Markets are now pricing in 60 bps for the meeting next week, so any surprise to the upside or downside might quickly shift expectations for rates to 50 bps or 75 bps and cause CAD volatility in both directions.

    “The balance of risks for the Canadian dollar today seems somewhat tilted to the positive, but there is still opportunity for USD/CAD gain (1.38-1.40) until the end of the year.”

    USD/CNH: 7.2670 is the next point of resistance – UOB

    The next resistance level, around 7.2670, is where UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann and market strategist Quek Ser Leang expect the USD/CNH to encounter short-term resistance.

    USD

    “Our assumption for US Dollar to ‘trade sideways within a range of 7.1850/7.2200’ was erroneous as it spiked to a high of 7.2332 before closing of a solid note at 7.2250 (+0.25%),” according to the 24-hour outlook. The upward momentum has somewhat increased. The US Dollar will probably trade with an upward bias, but any gains will likely run into stiff resistance above 7.2380. Support is located at 7.2100, then 7.2000.

    Within the next three weeks: “Last Friday (14 October, spot at 7.1880), we underlined that more US Dollar strength is not ruled out, but that 7.2380 is functioning as a strong barrier right now and that US Dollar must break this level before a prolonged climb is feasible. The US Dollar reached a high of 7.2332 yesterday before ending the day at 7.2250 (+0.25%). The possibility of the US Dollar breaching through 7.2380 is growing. The Sep high around 7.2670 would come into focus if this level were broken. Overall, a break of 7.1800 (a strong support’ level yesterday was around 7.1500) would signal a reduction in the upward risk.

    Please click here for the Market News Updates from 18 October, 2022.

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