Latest

Saturday, October 17, 2026

FX markets closed · Sydney opens Oct 19 02:30 IST

Edge-Forex

Markets move. We explain why.

Search

Delayed FX: ECB fix Oct 16 · Futures: 02:25 IST

Markets · Data

Oil shock currency tracker

Which currencies rise and fall when oil moves? This tracker measures the link between Brent crude and 14 currencies from daily prices. Oil exporters are expected to strengthen when crude rises and importers to weaken, but in an oil shock the US dollar often wins against almost everyone, so the numbers below show what is actually happening.

Updated Oct 17, 2026 · 17:55 IST · Data through Oct 14, 2026

Every figure is measured to Oct 14, 2026, the last day both the European Central Bank and the US Energy Information Administration have published. Rebuilt automatically as new prices arrive.

Oil right now

Brent crude

$126.55 a barrel

EIA spot price, Oct 14, 2026

1 day
+0.61%up
from Oct 13
1 week
+0.44%up
from Oct 7
1 month
+4.37%up
from Sep 14

WTI crude

$101.91 a barrel

EIA spot price, Oct 14, 2026

Key findings

  • One currency is tracking oil closely right now: the South African rand (−0.27).

    Over the last 90 trading days the strongest positive link is the Canadian dollar (+0.14) and the most negative is the South African rand (−0.27).

  • 12 of 14 currencies tend to weaken on days oil rises, including the Mexican peso, an oil exporter.

    That pattern points to oil shocks lifting the US dollar across the board, as a safe haven, rather than rewarding the countries that sell oil.

  • Over the month since Sep 14, Brent rose 4.4%, and 10 of 14 currencies lost ground against the US dollar.

Brent and the currencies

Brent vs the most and least oil-linked currencies

Rebased to 100 on Jun 9, 2026 · 90 trading days to Oct 14, 2026

Brent crude, Canadian dollar vs US dollar, South African rand vs US dollar, rebased to 100, Jun 9, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026Line chart, one value per trading day, every series set to 100 on Jun 9, 2026. Brent crude (solid line) ended at 134.4, having ranged between 72.8 and 143.9. Canadian dollar vs US dollar (dashed line) ended at 97.9, having ranged between 97.6 and 101.3. South African rand vs US dollar (dotted line) ended at 99.9, having ranged between 97.6 and 103.4. Currency lines rise when the currency strengthens against the US dollar. Every value is listed in the chart data table that follows.

All three series rebased to 100 on Jun 9, 2026. Currency lines rise when the currency strengthens against the US dollar.

Brent crude
Ended 134.4 · low 72.8 · high 143.9
Canadian dollar vs US dollar
Ended 97.9 · low 97.6 · high 101.3
South African rand vs US dollar
Ended 99.9 · low 97.6 · high 103.4
Chart data, day by day
Brent crude, Canadian dollar vs US dollar, South African rand vs US dollar, rebased to 100, Jun 9, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026. One row per trading day.
DateBrentCADZAR
Jun 9, 2026100.0100.0100.0
Jun 10, 2026101.799.999.1
Jun 11, 202698.699.699.7
Jun 12, 202694.199.5100.9
Jun 15, 202689.699.6101.5
Jun 16, 202685.599.3101.6
Jun 17, 202685.399.4101.4
Jun 18, 202684.398.6100.1
Jun 19, 202685.598.499.9
Jun 22, 202681.298.3100.3
Jun 23, 202680.498.199.8
Jun 24, 202676.697.899.0
Jun 25, 202678.397.899.3
Jun 26, 202674.598.2100.0
Jun 29, 202676.098.0100.2
Jun 30, 202674.897.8100.5
Jul 1, 202673.597.9100.1
Jul 2, 202672.897.9100.5
Jul 3, 202672.998.0101.5
Jul 6, 202673.997.9101.3
Jul 7, 202676.297.9101.3
Jul 8, 202681.398.1100.4
Jul 9, 202679.198.3100.5
Jul 10, 202679.098.4100.8
Jul 13, 202686.798.5100.5
Jul 14, 202688.998.699.9
Jul 15, 202688.298.9100.4
Jul 16, 202686.399.3100.5
Jul 17, 202690.399.399.7
Jul 20, 202692.499.299.8
Jul 21, 202699.798.9100.1
Jul 22, 2026100.098.899.9
Jul 23, 2026111.998.9100.1
Jul 24, 2026106.598.897.6
Jul 27, 202697.598.798.3
Jul 28, 202690.898.798.0
Jul 29, 202697.798.798.2
Jul 30, 202697.699.199.2
Jul 31, 2026103.099.199.3
Aug 3, 202694.499.299.9
Aug 4, 202691.899.0100.1
Aug 5, 202692.099.1100.7
Aug 6, 202695.299.5100.9
Aug 7, 202693.199.4101.4
Aug 10, 202698.599.9101.7
Aug 11, 202699.199.9101.7
Aug 12, 202698.3100.0102.0
Aug 13, 202697.799.8102.1
Aug 14, 202697.7100.3101.8
Aug 17, 202698.2100.4101.7
Aug 18, 2026101.2100.3101.4
Aug 19, 202698.1100.4101.3
Aug 20, 202699.8101.1101.7
Aug 21, 2026102.9101.3102.8
Aug 24, 202698.5100.5102.8
Aug 25, 202693.7100.4102.9
Aug 26, 202693.2100.4103.4
Aug 27, 202695.8100.4102.9
Aug 28, 202695.3100.5102.8
Sep 1, 2026102.0100.2101.8
Sep 2, 2026103.7100.0102.2
Sep 3, 2026106.8100.9102.6
Sep 4, 2026108.6100.9103.0
Sep 7, 2026111.0100.7102.9
Sep 8, 2026112.7100.8102.7
Sep 9, 2026116.3101.1102.6
Sep 10, 2026128.5100.8101.9
Sep 11, 2026125.4100.5101.8
Sep 14, 2026128.8100.2101.3
Sep 15, 2026138.9100.0101.1
Sep 16, 2026135.899.9101.1
Sep 17, 2026128.799.5101.2
Sep 18, 2026127.199.4101.1
Sep 21, 2026123.499.4101.2
Sep 22, 2026122.099.1101.3
Sep 23, 2026124.798.8100.7
Sep 24, 2026128.498.6100.1
Sep 25, 2026123.298.4101.0
Sep 28, 2026127.498.3100.4
Sep 29, 2026121.098.2100.5
Sep 30, 2026123.198.2100.4
Oct 1, 2026122.097.799.4
Oct 2, 2026143.997.898.3
Oct 5, 2026133.397.799.0
Oct 6, 2026133.297.799.8
Oct 7, 2026133.897.798.6
Oct 8, 2026138.397.698.8
Oct 9, 2026138.197.999.5
Oct 12, 2026138.097.699.5
Oct 13, 2026133.697.899.7
Oct 14, 2026134.497.999.9

Currency tracker

Change shows how much each currency has strengthened (+) or weakened (−) against the US dollar. Oil link is the correlation between the currency’s daily move and Brent’s daily move over the last 90 trading days: +1 would mean they always move together, −1 that they always move in opposite directions.

14 currencies against the US dollar to Oct 14, 2026, with each currency’s oil link
CurrencyRolePer USD1 day1 week1 monthOil linkReading
NOKNorwegian kroneOil exporter9.4716+0.68%up+1.19%up−1.59%down+0.08Little link
CADCanadian dollarOil exporter1.4219+0.15%up+0.24%up−2.33%down+0.14Little link
MXNMexican pesoOil exporter18.3653−0.17%down−1.48%down−7.04%down−0.20Leans against oil
BRLBrazilian realCommodity exporter5.0242−0.15%down−0.36%down+2.64%up−0.20Leans against oil
ZARSouth African randCommodity exporter16.4700+0.16%up+1.33%up−1.34%down−0.27Falls when oil rises
AUDAustralian dollarCommodity exporter1.4266+0.46%up+0.84%up−1.68%down−0.09Little link
EUREuroOil importer0.8933+0.06%up+0.16%up−3.08%down−0.18Leans against oil
JPYJapanese yenOil importer158.45−0.21%down−0.14%down−2.46%down−0.06Little link
INRIndian rupeeOil importer95.16+0.13%up+1.65%up+0.42%up−0.19Leans against oil
KRWSouth Korean wonOil importer1,336.79+0.35%up+0.14%up+0.71%up−0.01Little link
TRYTurkish liraOil importer49.3900−0.05%down−0.40%down−1.55%down−0.01Little link
CNYChinese yuanOil importer6.6927+0.02%up+0.18%up+0.23%up−0.01Little link
GBPBritish poundMixed0.7538+0.15%up+0.47%up−1.69%down−0.16Leans against oil
CHFSwiss francSafe haven0.8334−0.13%down−0.06%down−2.03%down−0.01Little link

Per USD is units of each currency per US dollar at the ECB fix of Oct 14, 2026. Changes run from the ECB fixes of Oct 13 (1 day), Oct 7 (1 week) and Sep 14 (1 month).

The biggest oil days

The largest one-day Brent moves of the last six months, newest first, with the two currencies that did best and the two that did worst against the US dollar over the same day. On a day almost every currency fell, even the best can show a loss.

The largest one-day moves in Brent crude, newest first, with the currencies that did best and worst against the US dollar the same day
DateBrentStrongest currenciesWeakest currencies
Oct 2, 2026from Oct 1+18.02%up
  • CHF +1.05%
  • KRW +0.96%
  • ZAR −1.12%
  • MXN −0.92%
Sep 10, 2026from Sep 9+10.47%up
  • CNY +0.02%
  • TRY −0.04%
  • NOK −0.92%
  • BRL −0.70%
Jul 23, 2026from Jul 22+11.90%up
  • KRW +0.52%
  • ZAR +0.22%
  • CHF −0.43%
  • JPY −0.24%
Jul 13, 2026from Jul 10+9.79%up
  • KRW +0.72%
  • MXN +0.21%
  • CHF −0.38%
  • INR −0.29%
May 6, 2026from May 5−9.44%down
  • ZAR +1.74%
  • KRW +1.72%
  • NOK −0.20%
  • TRY −0.01%
Apr 17, 2026from Apr 16−15.43%down
  • INR +0.45%
  • CAD +0.41%
  • TRY −0.22%
  • KRW −0.17%

What this means for you

If you hold savings, travel, or pay for things in a currency that falls when oil rises, an oil shock hits you twice: once at the pump and again through the exchange rate. Check the reading for your currency above before a big purchase abroad or a transfer home.

An oil link describes the last 90 trading days, not the future. Links shift as the reasons oil is moving change, so treat a reading as today’s weather, not the climate.

Method and sources

Exchange rates
European Central Bank daily reference rates, converted to US dollar terms. Retrieved through the Frankfurter API.
Oil
Brent and WTI spot prices from the US Energy Information Administration, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). They are published about a week after the trading day.
Changes
Change is how much the currency has strengthened (+) or weakened (-) against the US dollar, between ECB fixes, up to the last day both sources have published.
Oil link
Pearson correlation of the currency's daily log change against the dollar with Brent's daily log change, over the last 90 daily changes on which both sources published. The window runs from Jun 9, 2026 to Oct 14, 2026.
Readings
0.25 or more reads as rises with oil and -0.25 or less as falls when oil rises; from 0.15 (or -0.15) it leans with (or against) oil; in between there is little link.
Not shown
Gulf currencies such as the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham are pegged to the US dollar, so they are not shown.

Sources

Learn more