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Delayed FX: ECB fix Nov 6 · Futures: 03:25 IST

Markets · Data

Oil shock currency tracker

Which currencies rise and fall when oil moves? This tracker measures the link between Brent crude and 14 currencies from daily prices. Oil exporters are expected to strengthen when crude rises and importers to weaken, but in an oil shock the US dollar often wins against almost everyone, so the numbers below show what is actually happening.

Updated Nov 7, 2026 · 05:50 IST · Data through Nov 3, 2026

Every figure is measured to Nov 3, 2026, the last day both the European Central Bank and the US Energy Information Administration have published. Rebuilt automatically as new prices arrive.

Oil right now

Brent crude

$107.03 a barrel

EIA spot price, Nov 3, 2026

1 day
−0.34%down
from Nov 2
1 week
−13.05%down
from Oct 27
1 month
−21.02%down
from Oct 2

WTI crude

$99.64 a barrel

EIA spot price, Nov 3, 2026

Key findings

  • 2 of 14 currencies are tracking oil closely right now: the Mexican peso (−0.29) and the South African rand (−0.29).

    Over the last 90 trading days the strongest positive link is the Canadian dollar (+0.10) and the most negative is the South African rand (−0.29).

  • 11 of 14 currencies tend to weaken on days oil rises, including the Mexican peso, an oil exporter.

    That pattern points to oil shocks lifting the US dollar across the board, as a safe haven, rather than rewarding the countries that sell oil.

  • Over the month since Oct 2, Brent fell 21.0%, and 5 of 14 currencies lost ground against the US dollar.

Brent and the currencies

Brent vs the most and least oil-linked currencies

Rebased to 100 on Jun 29, 2026 · 90 trading days to Nov 3, 2026

Brent crude, Canadian dollar vs US dollar, South African rand vs US dollar, rebased to 100, Jun 29, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026Line chart, one value per trading day, every series set to 100 on Jun 29, 2026. Brent crude (solid line) ended at 149.5, having ranged between 95.7 and 189.3. Canadian dollar vs US dollar (dashed line) ended at 101.6, having ranged between 99.6 and 103.4. South African rand vs US dollar (dotted line) ended at 98.7, having ranged between 97.4 and 103.1. Currency lines rise when the currency strengthens against the US dollar. Every value is listed in the chart data table that follows.

All three series rebased to 100 on Jun 29, 2026. Currency lines rise when the currency strengthens against the US dollar.

Brent crude
Ended 149.5 · low 95.7 · high 189.3
Canadian dollar vs US dollar
Ended 101.6 · low 99.6 · high 103.4
South African rand vs US dollar
Ended 98.7 · low 97.4 · high 103.1
Chart data, day by day
Brent crude, Canadian dollar vs US dollar, South African rand vs US dollar, rebased to 100, Jun 29, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026. One row per trading day.
DateBrentCADZAR
Jun 29, 2026100.0100.0100.0
Jun 30, 202698.499.8100.3
Jul 1, 202696.799.999.9
Jul 2, 202695.799.9100.2
Jul 3, 202695.9100.0101.2
Jul 6, 202697.299.9101.1
Jul 7, 2026100.399.9101.1
Jul 8, 2026106.9100.1100.2
Jul 9, 2026104.0100.2100.3
Jul 10, 2026103.8100.4100.6
Jul 13, 2026114.0100.5100.3
Jul 14, 2026116.9100.799.7
Jul 15, 2026116.0100.9100.2
Jul 16, 2026113.5101.3100.3
Jul 17, 2026118.7101.399.4
Jul 20, 2026121.5101.299.5
Jul 21, 2026131.1100.999.8
Jul 22, 2026131.5100.899.6
Jul 23, 2026147.1100.999.9
Jul 24, 2026140.1100.897.4
Jul 27, 2026128.3100.798.1
Jul 28, 2026119.4100.797.8
Jul 29, 2026128.4100.798.0
Jul 30, 2026128.4101.199.0
Jul 31, 2026135.4101.299.0
Aug 3, 2026124.2101.399.7
Aug 4, 2026120.8101.099.8
Aug 5, 2026121.0101.1100.4
Aug 6, 2026125.2101.5100.6
Aug 7, 2026122.4101.4101.2
Aug 10, 2026129.5101.9101.5
Aug 11, 2026130.3101.9101.5
Aug 12, 2026129.2102.0101.7
Aug 13, 2026128.6101.8101.8
Aug 14, 2026128.5102.4101.5
Aug 17, 2026129.1102.5101.5
Aug 18, 2026133.1102.4101.2
Aug 19, 2026129.0102.4101.1
Aug 20, 2026131.3103.2101.5
Aug 21, 2026135.4103.4102.6
Aug 24, 2026129.5102.6102.6
Aug 25, 2026123.3102.5102.7
Aug 26, 2026122.6102.5103.1
Aug 27, 2026126.0102.4102.7
Aug 28, 2026125.4102.5102.6
Sep 1, 2026134.1102.3101.6
Sep 2, 2026136.3102.0102.0
Sep 3, 2026140.4103.0102.4
Sep 4, 2026142.8102.9102.8
Sep 7, 2026145.9102.8102.6
Sep 8, 2026148.2102.9102.4
Sep 9, 2026153.0103.2102.3
Sep 10, 2026169.0102.8101.7
Sep 11, 2026164.9102.5101.6
Sep 14, 2026169.4102.3101.0
Sep 15, 2026182.7102.0100.9
Sep 16, 2026178.6101.9100.9
Sep 17, 2026169.3101.5101.0
Sep 18, 2026167.1101.4100.9
Sep 21, 2026162.2101.4101.0
Sep 22, 2026160.5101.1101.1
Sep 23, 2026164.1100.8100.4
Sep 24, 2026168.9100.699.9
Sep 25, 2026162.0100.4100.7
Sep 28, 2026167.6100.3100.1
Sep 29, 2026159.2100.2100.3
Sep 30, 2026161.9100.1100.1
Oct 1, 2026160.499.799.2
Oct 2, 2026189.399.798.1
Oct 5, 2026175.399.798.7
Oct 6, 2026175.299.799.5
Oct 7, 2026176.099.798.4
Oct 8, 2026181.899.698.6
Oct 9, 2026181.699.899.3
Oct 12, 2026181.599.699.2
Oct 13, 2026175.799.799.5
Oct 14, 2026176.899.999.7
Oct 15, 2026176.5100.099.1
Oct 16, 2026166.7100.399.9
Oct 19, 2026166.0100.999.9
Oct 20, 2026160.9101.199.6
Oct 21, 2026163.9101.1100.3
Oct 22, 2026175.2101.299.4
Oct 23, 2026179.2101.598.9
Oct 26, 2026179.0101.398.7
Oct 27, 2026172.0101.398.6
Oct 28, 2026166.5101.198.6
Oct 29, 2026161.0101.598.6
Oct 30, 2026167.8101.798.4
Nov 2, 2026150.0101.698.7
Nov 3, 2026149.5101.698.7

Currency tracker

Change shows how much each currency has strengthened (+) or weakened (−) against the US dollar. Oil link is the correlation between the currency’s daily move and Brent’s daily move over the last 90 trading days: +1 would mean they always move together, −1 that they always move in opposite directions.

14 currencies against the US dollar to Nov 3, 2026, with each currency’s oil link
CurrencyRolePer USD1 day1 week1 monthOil linkReading
NOKNorwegian kroneOil exporter9.2303+0.24%up+0.94%up+4.54%up+0.02Little link
CADCanadian dollarOil exporter1.3975−0.01%down+0.34%up+1.90%up+0.10Little link
MXNMexican pesoOil exporter18.5974+0.66%up+0.21%up−1.41%down−0.29Falls when oil rises
BRLBrazilian realCommodity exporter5.4934−1.01%down−2.66%down−4.95%down−0.11Little link
ZARSouth African randCommodity exporter16.63790.00%unchanged+0.06%up+0.58%up−0.29Falls when oil rises
AUDAustralian dollarCommodity exporter1.4319−0.35%down−0.68%down+0.64%up−0.09Little link
EUREuroOil importer0.8945−0.33%down+0.26%up−0.41%down−0.22Leans against oil
JPYJapanese yenOil importer158.29−0.25%down−0.30%down−0.39%down−0.01Little link
INRIndian rupeeOil importer94.75+0.17%up+0.39%up+1.66%up−0.18Leans against oil
KRWSouth Korean wonOil importer1,344.59−0.13%down−1.25%down+0.27%up0.00Little link
TRYTurkish liraOil importer49.9970−0.06%down−0.42%down−1.70%down−0.06Little link
CNYChinese yuanOil importer6.6723−0.36%down−0.07%down+0.48%up−0.08Little link
GBPBritish poundMixed0.7457−0.06%down+0.62%up+1.59%up−0.20Leans against oil
CHFSwiss francSafe haven0.8199−0.04%down+1.06%up+0.82%up−0.04Little link

Per USD is units of each currency per US dollar at the ECB fix of Nov 3, 2026. Changes run from the ECB fixes of Nov 2 (1 day), Oct 27 (1 week) and Oct 2 (1 month).

The biggest oil days

The largest one-day Brent moves of the last six months, newest first, with the two currencies that did best and the two that did worst against the US dollar over the same day. On a day almost every currency fell, even the best can show a loss.

The largest one-day moves in Brent crude, newest first, with the currencies that did best and worst against the US dollar the same day
DateBrentStrongest currenciesWeakest currencies
Nov 2, 2026from Oct 30−10.62%down
  • MXN +1.01%
  • CHF +0.41%
  • KRW −0.57%
  • JPY −0.41%
Oct 2, 2026from Oct 1+18.02%up
  • CHF +1.05%
  • KRW +0.96%
  • ZAR −1.12%
  • MXN −0.92%
Sep 10, 2026from Sep 9+10.47%up
  • CNY +0.02%
  • TRY −0.04%
  • NOK −0.92%
  • BRL −0.70%
Jul 23, 2026from Jul 22+11.90%up
  • KRW +0.52%
  • ZAR +0.22%
  • CHF −0.43%
  • JPY −0.24%
Jul 13, 2026from Jul 10+9.79%up
  • KRW +0.72%
  • MXN +0.21%
  • CHF −0.38%
  • INR −0.29%
May 6, 2026from May 5−9.44%down
  • ZAR +1.74%
  • KRW +1.72%
  • NOK −0.20%
  • TRY −0.01%

What this means for you

If you hold savings, travel, or pay for things in a currency that falls when oil rises, an oil shock hits you twice: once at the pump and again through the exchange rate. Check the reading for your currency above before a big purchase abroad or a transfer home.

An oil link describes the last 90 trading days, not the future. Links shift as the reasons oil is moving change, so treat a reading as today’s weather, not the climate.

Method and sources

Exchange rates
European Central Bank daily reference rates, converted to US dollar terms. Retrieved through the Frankfurter API.
Oil
Brent and WTI spot prices from the US Energy Information Administration, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). They are published about a week after the trading day.
Changes
Change is how much the currency has strengthened (+) or weakened (-) against the US dollar, between ECB fixes, up to the last day both sources have published.
Oil link
Pearson correlation of the currency's daily log change against the dollar with Brent's daily log change, over the last 90 daily changes on which both sources published. The window runs from Jun 29, 2026 to Nov 3, 2026.
Readings
0.25 or more reads as rises with oil and -0.25 or less as falls when oil rises; from 0.15 (or -0.15) it leans with (or against) oil; in between there is little link.
Not shown
Gulf currencies such as the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham are pegged to the US dollar, so they are not shown.

Sources

Learn more