FOREX
Why a Canadian Dollar Win Streak Could Change Your Holiday Budget
The Canadian dollar win streak extends to seven days as Fed-BoC policy splits and rising oil prices pull USD/CAD to a one-month low near 1.3975.
Losing streak calculator
How many losses in a row to expect over a run of trades, and the odds of each streak length, from nothing more than a win rate.
Result
Longest losing run to expect
7.0losses
On average, over 200 trades at a 50% win rate.
- More likely than not
- 7 in a row
Exact for independent trades. Real losses can cluster, when a market stops suiting a strategy, which makes long runs more likely.
Chance of a losing run of at least each length
| Losses in a row | Chance | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 2+ | 100.00% | 1.0 |
| 3+ | 100.00% | 1.0 |
| 4+ | 99.93% | 1.0 |
| 5+ | 96.59% | 1.0 |
| 6+ | 80.09% | 1.2 |
| 7+ | 54.37% | 1.8 |
| 8+ | 31.97% | 3.1 |
| 9+ | 17.32% | 5.8 |
| 10+ | 8.99% | 11 |
| 11+ | 4.57% | 22 |
| 12+ | 2.30% | 44 |
| 13+ | 1.15% | 87 |
| 14+ | 0.57% | 175 |
| 15+ | 0.28% | 351 |
| 16+ | 0.14% | 705 |
| 17+ | 0.07% | over 1,000 |
| 18+ | 0.04% | over 1,000 |
| 19+ | 0.02% | over 1,000 |
This tool uses no exchange rates. Everything is calculated in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
How it is calculated
Long losing streaks happen to sound strategies, more often than most traders expect. Knowing the likely worst run in advance makes it easier to size trades so that it can be survived, and to tell bad luck from a broken strategy.
chance of a run of k losses = worked out exactly, trade by tradeexpected longest run = sum of the chances of runs of 1, 2, 3 … losses
The calculation follows the length of the current losing run through every trade, which gives exact probabilities for independent trades. Real losses can bunch together when markets change, so treat these as a minimum.
Worked example
- A 50% win rate over 200 trades: a run of 7 losses is more likely than not (54%).
- A run of 10 has about a 9% chance: roughly 1 trader in 11 would see one.
Risk. These tools do arithmetic on the figures you enter. They are not advice, and unless a field asks for them they leave out spreads, commission, financing and slippage. Past results do not predict future ones. Trading leveraged currency products carries a high risk of loss. Read our financial disclaimer.