FOREX
Why a Canadian Dollar Win Streak Could Change Your Holiday Budget
The Canadian dollar win streak extends to seven days as Fed-BoC policy splits and rising oil prices pull USD/CAD to a one-month low near 1.3975.
Expectancy calculator
What a strategy makes or loses on an average trade, from its win rate and the size of its average win and loss.
Result
Expectancy per trade
+35.00
+0.350R: each trade makes or loses that share of the average loss, on average.
- Expected over 100 trades
- +3,500.00
- Payoff ratio
- 2.00 : 1
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
As a rough guide, +0.1R a trade is a thin edge that costs can erase, +0.3R is solid, and +0.5R or more is unusual and worth checking for too few trades or a lucky run.
This tool uses no exchange rates. Everything is calculated in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
How it is calculated
Win rate alone says little: a strategy that wins 70% of the time can still lose money if its losses are much larger than its wins. Expectancy combines the two.
expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average lossin R = expectancy ÷ average lossbreak-even win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
Use figures after spread and commission, from enough trades to mean something. A few dozen trades can show an edge that is not there.
Worked example
- 45% winners averaging 200, 55% losers averaging 100.
- 0.45 × 200 − 0.55 × 100 = 90 − 55 = +35 a trade, or +0.35R.
- Over 100 trades, about +3,500. Break-even would be 100 ÷ 300 = 33.3% winners.
Risk. These tools do arithmetic on the figures you enter. They are not advice, and unless a field asks for them they leave out spreads, commission, financing and slippage. Past results do not predict future ones. Trading leveraged currency products carries a high risk of loss. Read our financial disclaimer.